When to push the panic button.
That’s a valuable life-skill, really, knowing when to push the panic button.
You’re out on a first date, “...and Miley Cyrus, you know, her music really speaks to me!” Panic button.
First day of class. Professor begins, “Really, we should all embrace theoretical calculus as an important component of our daily lives.” Panic button.
You’re on the daily commute to work. You look down and suddenly realize you forgot to wear pants that particular morning. Panic button.
You go to set your fantasy lineup and you see the name “Ray Rice.” Panic button.
In fact, there have been quite a few early season disappointments, many “panic-button-worthy.” And, heading into week 5, if one of said panic-inducers finds himself on your team, it’s probably time to consider a change. This week, I’ve sent out more trade offers than I have in a long time (including one where I accidentally offered Trent Richardson and Percy Harvin for… nothing) and it’s primarily because I have a few “panic-button” players on several of my rosters. But hey, a quarter of the season in, if things aren’t falling your way it’s time to make a change. Don’t tie yourself to a player. Don’t restrict your moves because of pre-draft valuation. Remember all that awesome preseason hype about Montee Ball? You know how many fantasy points hype scores for your team?
I think you get the picture.
A close look at my flex rankings this week should inform you as to who I think it’s time to slam the panic button on and who I think should soon see a turn for the better. Each week, ,I try to approach the rankings in a similar fashion: would I really start player A over player B? I comb back through them and constantly rank and re-rank accordingly. It’s a tedious process but a necessary one: we all have to do it every single week for every single team we manage. I only hope my help herein will be of good assistance as you, perhaps, relegate your panic-buttoners to their rightful place… the bench.
MY MISSION STATEMENT
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people. And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult conundrums as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
Week 5 Top 75
1. Lesean McCoy
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Matt Forte
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Arian Foster
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Demaryius Thomas
8. Jimmy Graham
9. Frank Gore
10. Reggie Bush
11. AJ Green
12. Dez Bryant
13. Julio Jones
14. Brandon Marshall
15. Wes Welker
The Big Boys Wow, that got ugly fast. And yes, I really do think Jimmy Graham belongs at number 8 overall. He’s having the season we all hoped for in 2012 and then some and now finds himself going up against a banged up Bears defense that is already without Henry Melton and perhaps down Charles Tillman this week. This is not your dad’s Bears defense, ladies and gentlemen. Sticking with Chicago, keep an eye on Brandon Marshall who has been limited by a foot injury. I still maintain AJ Green is on the same tier as Megatron and Demaryius and I think this is the week he reclaims that designation, despite the failings of Andy Dalton. Reggie Bush is the name I am most nervous about here. He’s a great weapon and certainly looks the part this year, but he won’t repeat his week 4. The Lions saw something in the Bears scheme and attacked it. It won’t be the same in Green Bay. Oh and you know who scores touchdowns? Wes Welker. That’s who. Denver even ran him out of the backfield on a goal-line set into the front right corner of the endzone where he promptly caught a Peyton Manning touchdown throw. Welker can hurt you in so many ways.
16. Darren Sproles
17. Victor Cruz
18. Demarco Murray
19. Randall Cobb
20. Jordy Nelson
21. Knowshon Moreno
22. Marques Colston
23. Jordan Cameron
24. Desean Jackson
25. Trent Richardson
26. Andre Johnson
27. Julius Thomas
28. Torrey Smith
29. Ray Rice
30. Eddie Lacy
Panic Mode?
Two important “panic?” names to consider here: Trent Richardson and Ray Rice. Richardson’s ranking reflects his matchup. I still believe as he gets more acquainted with the Colts’ plans his production will increase to the delight of many a fantasy owner. Rice’s ranking, however, reflects all-out terror. What are the Ravens doing throwing 50 times and handing the ball off to Ray-Ray in single digits? That’s insane! Far be it from me to question the authority of a Superbowl-winning head coach but seriously John Harbaugh, what the hell are you thinking?! Look, until the Ravens get this figured out, I am in manic panic mode when it comes to Rice. I’m not trading him at all- you can’t get any value at the moment - but am I playing Moreno over him? Yes. Demarco Murray? Absolutely. Julius Thomas? You bet! Even his own teammate, Torrey Smith, would get the nod in my flex play. As long as Joe Flacco is hucking it fifty-plus, Ray receives a demotion. I would put him down even further but today’s news that the Ravens have acquired Jacksonville’s OT Eugene Monroe gives me a slim Ray of hope… see what I did there? Yeah, you see it.
Oh and uh, I like the Packers receivers this week.
31. Eric Decker
32. Antonio Gates
33. Chris Johnson
34. Lamar Miller
35. Giovani Bernard
36. Tony Gonzalez
37. Josh Gordon
38. Larry Fitzgerald
39. Jason Witten
40. Anquan Boldin
41. Reggie Wayne
42. Martellus Bennett
43. Maurice Jones-Drew
44. Greg Olsen
45. Vernon Davis
Tight End Explosion, Part Two
As per last week, probably not best to repeat the title of this segment of analysis in a workplace setting. Nonetheless, I really like playing Tight Ends in the flex this year. Apart from the red zone looks, several of the tight ends in this tier are putting up excellent yardage this season. Gates in particular has a nice matchup this week. I also think Bennett puts up good numbers in a game that could easily be a shootout. If you saw what Torrey Smith did to the Bills last week, you wouldn’t be surprised to discover Josh Gordon at number 37 overall. This is a very beatable secondary and Gordon has the talent to beat it. While I don’t love Lamar Miller’s matchup, he has scored double digits in two of the past three weeks and also averaged 11 carries per week during that span. Oh, and MJD gets to play the Rams this week. Enjoy it for the one week. If Jones-Drew does anything at all, move him for whatever you can get.
46. Deangelo Williams
47. Bilal Powell
48. David Wilson
49. Fred Jackson
50. Owen Daniels
51. Danny Amendola
52. James Jones
53. Cecil Shorts
54. Hakeem Nicks
55. Stevan Ridley
56. Julian Edelman
57. Kenbrell Thompkins
58. Denarius Moore
59. Danny Woodhead
60. Joique Bell
Patriotic Weekend
Oh, great government, please re-open. In lieu of functioning legislators, let’s discuss some actual Patriots, namely, the receiving corps. Even if Amendola is at full health, suits up, and plays, I find it very hard to trust him. Yes, Edelman has been downgraded under the assumption Amendola returns and all my Patriots find themselves outside the top 50. Strange, I suppose. And no, I don’t think Rob Gronkowski plays yet. A name I really like here is Denarius Moore at 59. If Terrelle Pryor indeed returns as expected I think Moore could have a nice game late Sunday night. I don’t think CJ Spiller plays but even so I don’t like Fred Jackson as much more than a flex play. The Browns defense, as you might have heard, is legit.
61. Jared Cook
62. Ryan Matthews
63. Alshon Jeffery
64. Steve Johnson
65. Brian Hartline
66. Mike Wallace
67. Dwayne Bowe
68. Coby Fleener
69. Steve Smith
70. Andre Ellington
71. Ben Tate
72. Jermichael Finley
73. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
74. Eddie Royal
75. Rashad Jennings
Steves, Dolphins, and RB-2s
Apart from the matchup, being slightly banged up, and a 1-catch for -1 yard performance, what’s not to love about Steve Johnson? I’ve been saying for awhile now that Greg Olsen, not Steve Smith, is the number one option in the Carolina passing game but both Ted Ginn and Brandon LaFell have also been receiving looks. Hey, remember when I mentioned Andre Ellington last week? Now everyone’s all over him. Look, I can’t claim Andre Ellington glory but there’s a reason I liked him way back when in the misty days of yore… and that reason is the running back in front of him is Rashard Mendenhall. Between the Dolphin receivers I prefer Hartline but Wallace is always capable of making one big play.
Best of luck in week 5. As always you can tweet rants, comments, lineup questions, or general nonsense to @petethegreekff.
