So were you one of the lucky one's who hung onto their waiver slot so they could jump on Rashard Mendenhall, Jeremy Maclin or Miles Austin the last couple of weeks? Probably not. Like most of us, the guy in your league who's already dipped in gold lucked into the guy you wanted. Now you're kicking yourself, because they were all free agents in 80% of fantasy leagues before they exploded. But how could you know? You're not psychic and you're not a fantasy stat geek who sits up til four in the morning in his Stewie boxers, drinking Yoohoo's and calculating the triangulation between this receiver's chances versus that defense's free safety. Well, you, the one in Michigan eating a Sno-ball and checking your fantasy bass fishing stats. You might be that guy, but the rest of us are not.
Getting the hottest new player or bye week fill-in after the big break out game isn't very useful or easy. The trick is evaluating where certain free agents have a reasonable probability of opportunity and talent colliding. For Miles Austin last week it took an injury to Roy Williams combined with a Kansas City blitz defense that kept leaving Austin wide open. So it really becomes like fishing, hoping you hook a shark instead of a soiled condom. First you have to know the best spots to hang your pole, so let's go fishing.
Looking at Week 6, here are some guys I think could have reasonably productive fantasy value as a bye week filler:
Mike Wallace, WR, PIT - Let's face it, the Steelers are pass happy these days. Nate Washington has fled to Tennessee, and sophomore Limas Sweed is riding the bench. That leaves Wallace as the team's full time third receiver. And has anyone noticed Santonio Holmes has fallen off the fantasy radar? This week the Steeler's will be jamming the ball down the Cleveland Browns throat with Rashard Mendenhall and a healthy Willie Parker. That means there will be plenty of opportunities for Wallace to get open down field. I expect one of those to go for a touchdown, but worst case he should have 6-7 receptions and close to 100 yards this week. He is averaging 5 targets a game, and he already had a 100 yard game versus the other Ohio team. He could have a Jeremy Maclin like day, but I'd settle for 10-12 points from a bye week fill-in. He's currently available in 97% of ESPN and 87% of Yahoo leagues.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, NYG - Steve Smith, yada yada, yada. Mario Manningham, blah, blah, blah. They've been great this season. meanwhile Nicks got hurt in week one and missed the next two games. He came back in week 4 and led the receivers in fantasy points. In week 5, he did the same thing. Could this week be his third straight with a TD and leader of the receiving corp for the G-men? Would it surprise you to know he's still available in 89% of ESPN and 74% of yahoo leagues?
Jordy Nelson, WR, GBP - Nelson has been the team's third receiver this season. He hasn't been asked or had a chance to do too much in three games, though over the last two you can see Aaron Rodgers getting comfortable with him. So far he's averaging 4 targets a game, and he has 7 receptions. Nothing to get excited about until you realize Greg Jennings only has 11 receptions, and he's played one more game than Nelson. Rodgers loves to pass, and this week the Packers face the Detroit Lions who give up the 6th most points to wide receivers. This is a game where one or all three of the Pack receivers should/could have big days. Oh, and if return yards matter in your league, Nelson is now the return man since Will Blackmon went out for the year. Nelson is still available in over 95% of all leagues.
David Clowney, WR, NYJ - Anyone remember how good Clowney was in the preseason? He led all receivers on the team, including eventual starters Jericho Cotchery and Chansi Stucky. When the season started, he was on the bench. Now Braylon Edwards is in town to give defenses a true top end receiver to pay attention to. Stuckey's gone. Last week, Cotchery was out with an injury and Clowney got to play. He put up 72 yards receiving; better than both Steve Smiths. This week, Cotchery is going to be out again (so is receiver Brad Smith) so Clowney gets another start. This time against the sputtering Buffalo Bills. With the defense focusing on shutting down the run game and Braylon Edwards, Clowney has a chance to have a 100 yard day with a score. He's available in 99% of leagues.
--Free Agent Spotlight--
Johnny Knox/Earl Bennett, WR, CHI - Interesting fact; the team's #1 receiver is Devin Hester, and he's owned in over 80% of all leagues. Earl Bennett is the team's #2 receiver. Here's how they compare through 4 games:
|
Player |
G |
GS |
Targets |
Rec |
Yards |
TDs |
| Johnny Knox |
4 |
0 |
24 |
14 |
190 |
2 |
| Devin Hester |
4 |
4 |
20 |
14 |
189 |
2 |
| Earl Bennett |
4 |
4 |
21 |
15 |
200 |
0 |
All three have nearly identical numbers in targets, receptions, and yards. Bennett hasn't yet scored, but that's as much luck of the draw as anything else. Knox has ultimately been Jay Cutler's number one target, and he's not even a starter. He hasn't started any of the team's 4 games. So if you would hang on to Hester, why would you not snag one or both of Knox and Bennett? As the season wears on, Cutler's chemistry with both will continue to improve, and their bye week is behind them. As an added bonus for Knox, he now shares kick return duties and has already run one back for a TD. Knox is still available in 38% of leagues, while Bennett is available in about 80% of leagues.
--Free Agent Wide Receiver With Future Promise--
Josh Morgan, WR, SFO - A slow start combined with a bye week and the signing of Michael Crabtree have given owners a reason to dump Morgan. Bad for them, good for you. In week 4 Morgan scored his first TD of the season. In week 5 he had 78 yards and came up one yard shy of his second TD. Can anyone tell me why football players slow themselves down by looking over their shoulder repeatedly as they get close to the endzone? Eyes forward, run like hell, don't stop till you score or your brought down like a rabid buffalo. But I digress. Crabtree's signing means one more weapon the defense must key on, meaning more big receptions and long TD runs are in store for the rest of Morgan's season. He was a top sleeper pick in the preseason. Now that everyone's gone to sleep on him, pick him up before he goes back on waivers this week. He's available in 52% of ESPN and a stunning 93% of Yahoo leagues.
