So... five makes a what?
If one is an anomaly, two a coincidence, and three a trend, then five gives us? Well, that’s one of the things about fantasy football: it’s maddeningly complex. In some cases, five weeks worth of data is plenty to start creating labels and projections for the rest of the season, to start determining value. In other situations (Hakeem Nicks, Doug Martin, Rashard Mendenhall), five weeks still isn’t enough to judge correctly.
An interesting example: this week, what do you do with the New England Patriots... and by extension, Seattle’s D/ST? Let’s not soon forget what happened to the Patriots the last time they faced a staunch NFC West defense, the Arizona Cardinals, and that game was even at home! Now New England travels all the way across the country to the land of the screwy refs and Obnoxious neon stripes. I think you’re still using your Patriots, but in the words of many-a-fantasy-analyst, temper your expectations.
MY MISSION STATEMENT
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people. And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
Week 6 Top 75
1. Arian Foster
2. Ray Rice
3. Trent Richardson
4. LeSean McCoy
5. Jamaal Charles
6. Adrian Peterson
7. Frank Gore
8. Marshawn Lynch
9. AJ Green
10. Calvin Johnson
11. Darren McFadden
12. Percy Harvin
13. Tony Gonzalez
14. Roddy White
15. Reggie Bush
The Bye Bigs
Welcome to the top-15, Percy Harvin! Yes, we’re in the middle of a bye week, but Harvin might deserve this otherwise. He has a great matchup against a soft ‘Skins secondary and has performed well to date. Strange to see two Vikings in the top-15, isn’t it? Trent Richardson looked awesome last week, especially in the first half. I may have him too high, but I’m a little skeptical on how the Brady Quinn situation will affect Jamaal Charles and, let’s be honest: if you have the top-5 guys you’re playing them anyway. Tony Gonzalez has been dynamite... and Darren McFadden has been anything but. Still, Atlanta’s run-stopping ability is certainly not their forte, and I expect the Raiders used the bye to figure out a thing or two. While I’ve got Lynch at 8, I just have a bad feeling about him this week... which is why I moved both Gore and Peterson above him. Also, clearly, I’m still not sold on Ryan Matthews.
16. Demaryius Thomas
17. Alfred Morris
18. Mike Wallace
19. Julio Jones
20. Ryan Matthews
21. Rashard Mendenhall
22. Demarco Murray
23. Wes Welker
24. Reggie Wayne
25. Victor Cruz
26. Larry Fitzgerald
27. Rob Gronkowski
28. Dwayne Bowe
29. Michael Turner
30. Stevan Ridley
Statements
Last week I ranked Fitz below Welker and Thomas and guess what? I was right. I’m doing it again for week 6, but feel much less confident as the Bills have been terrible. I guess I’m all-in on the Steelers this week, which makes sense: the Titans are giving it up to everybody. I’m a bit concerned with the Patriots’ matchup, but also a bit more about Gronkowski’s hip and their game plans of late. Still, I think he should be fine this week and moving forward. I think this feels about right for Ryan Matthews- one week does not a season (or trust) make. If I see him do it more frequently, great, but let’s not forget this guy is, so far, more brittle than Mr. Glass from Unbreakable.
31. Vernon Davis
32. Miles Austin
33. Ahmad Bradshaw
34. Jordy Nelson
35. Eric Decker
36. Antonio Brown
37. Doug Martin
38. Vincent Jackson
39. Andre Johnson
40. Desean Jackson
41. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
42. Willis McGahee
43. Mikel Leshoure
44. CJ Spiller
45. Dez Bryant
Bucs and Broncos and Tiers, Oh My!
There’s a very interesting tier of running backs here, all of them are performing! ...Or at least have performed, even if not consistently. I like Ridley and Martin’s upside, but with that also comes downside: Martin hasn’t really produced well since week one, and at any moment Ridley could fall out of favor. Still, for the time being, enjoy what you get out of them. Newsflash! The San Francisco 49ers are NOT the Cleveland Browns. Ahmad Bradshaw will return to earth this week, and remains a great sell-high candidate. I like both Denver receivers a lot this week. San Diego’s defense isn’t quite as bad as it looked against New Orleans Sunday night, but I also think Peyton Manning can find enough gaps for all the Broncos to have a nice day.
46. Brandon Lloyd
47. Fred Jackson
48. Chris Johnson
49. Malcom Floyd
50. Torrey Smith
51. Brian Hartline
52. Vick Ballard
53. Pierre Garcon
54. Alex Green
55. James Jones
56. Heath Miller
57. Jeremy Maclin
58. Michael Crabtree
59. LaRod Stephens-Howling
60. Steve Johnson
I Believe...
...that CJ Spiller is still the back you want in Buffalo. In all the Steelers, I guess, even Heath Miller this week. That Fantasy Chess would be an awesome idea. That Jeremy Maclin will be back to his old self soon. That we have another fantasy-relevant Vick. That I’ve almost convinced a fellow manager to go as a gyro for Halloween. That Alex Green keeps the job in Green Bay. That Pierre Garcon will produce. That Dallas’ secondary is better than you think. That the Texans aren’t undefeated after this weekend, and James Jones may have a say in that. In space aliens. That Hakeem Nicks doesn’t play.
61. Kyle Rudolph
62. Jason Witten
63. Anquan Boldin
64. Jeremy Kerley
65. Owen Daniels
66. Kendall Wright
67. Andrew Hawkins
68. William Powell
69. Bilal Powell
70. Antonio Gates
71. Andre Roberts
72. Denarius Moore
73. Fred Davis
74. Randall Cobb
75. Brent Celek
Final Thoughts
You’ll notice the striking absence of Saint Louis running backs. The fact is, if you have Steven Jackson you may have to use him, but I’d try to avoid it if possible. Miami has been top-10 in the league in points-against opposing rushers and Jackson hasn’t looked 100% all season. If you need a lottery ticket, this might finally be the week the Jets turn to Bilal Powell. Other lottery tickets? Andrew Hawkins could torch Cleveland, who gives up the second most fantasy points per game against opposing wideouts. The Colts are also quite bad at giving it up to WRs, so Jeremy Kerley isn’t a terrible option. I think Tennessee has to throw a lot, and Kendall Wright could put together another nice day. Keep an eye on Kenny Britt-related tweets headed up to gametime. I assume he will be active, but limited. If word comes out he’s a full go, he may be a nice play.
Best of luck in week 6, minions. As always you can follow me @petethegreekff for random nonsense, lineup advice, and thoughts on the Blue Sox.