The return of the Friday Five! Headed into the weekend, on top of my usual top Week 7 Flex Rankingss, I have also included a review of the five most interesting and important Fantasy stories of week 7.
Friday Five
No. 1: The Dallas Running Backs
With Demarco Murray sidelined potentially multiple weeks, Felix Jones is expected to take on most of the load. In the first two games after Demarco Murray’s 2011 injury, Jones toted the rock 38 times for 212 yards and caught 9 passes for 54 yards... but scored zero touchdowns. In the final two games of the season, Jones only carried the ball 15 times total for 54 yards. So the question is, which Felix will we get? Of course, the question lands heaviest on the shoulders of the Dallas offense in its entirety: how much it is committed to and able to run. This week, against a bottom-10 Panthers rush defense, I’d expect more of Felix A, if you will. Still, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see a Philip Tanner appearance, and the zero total touchdowns in the last four weeks of 2011 is a very disturbing stat.
No. 2: The Pittsburgh Running Backs
Word came out today that both Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman will miss Sunday’s game. Assuming that is officially confirmed, Jonathan Dwyer seems to be the Steelers back you want. While both Chris Rainey and Barron Batch could receive touches, everything I have seen or read suggests Dwyer will be “the guy”. The only real question is: how much do you want “the guy” running the ball for Pittsburgh? The Steelers offensive line is decimated with injuries and in the past three games Ben Roethlisberger has thrown the ball 40, 37, and 49 times. This is no longer a run-first offense. If you’re desperate, I think Dwyer is the best plug-in, but you probably have better options.
No. 3: The Jonathan Skelton Situation
It’s amazing how much one injury can affect Fantasy football. Kevin Kolb “had multiple ribs detach from his sternum.” Is this a science fiction medical scene or an NFL injury? Yeah, it’s actually the latter. Consider the scope of Skelton taking over: do the Cardinals lean on William Powell even more? Does Larry Fitzgerald see a drop-off in performance? What about Andre Roberts and Rob Housler, in deeper leagues? My own answers: 1) No, I don’t think Powell will be able to produce much more. The Cardinals rushing attack has been the very definition of anemic. 2) Fitz may see a slight bump in the road, but you’re still using him. 3) Play the Vikings defense this week.
No. 4: The End of Steven Jackson?
Last week, Steven Jackson was in a near-even-split time-share with Daryl Richardson, and Richardson, simply put, looked better. Also, in week two against the Redskins, Richardson put up a better performance (15 carries/83 yards) than Steven Jackson has all year. In fact, Jackson has eclipsed 60 yards only ONCE all season: 18 carries/76 yards in week 5 against Arizona. Right now, before any more action, I can tell you honestly Daryl Richardson is the back I’d rather own in Saint Louis.
No. 5: The Carolina Offense
Cam Newton has had two Superman-esque performances and three Clark Kents. Not a good ratio. As we saw last year, Newton also continues to take away rushing attempts, including many near the goal line, from both Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Dallas’ defense has been more than respectable against the pass, but masked in that is that out of five games, they have faced Russell Wilson and Josh Freeman in two of them. I think Newton can have a nice day here, and by extension Steve Smith and Greg Olsen are usable, but if he doesn’t, I’m not sure you can really trust him, or the Panthers, in 2012.
Keep an eye on all of the above fluid situations this weekend, but now:
Week 7 Top-75
1. Arian Foster
2. Ray Rice
3. Trent Richardson
4. AJ Green
5. Matt Forte
6. Calvin Johnson
7. Adrian Peterson
8. Darren McFadden
9. Maurice Jones-Drew
10. Doug Martin
11. Victor Cruz
12. Percy Harvin
13. Brandon Marshall
14. Alfred Morris
15. Wes Welker
The Big Boys
I am assuming Trent Richardson plays, which it looks as if he will. AJ Green continues his stud-dom, but Calvin Johnson is exactly the type of big, physical receiver who can get vertical that the Bears do struggle against. If the Lions can give Matthew Stafford time, which is a big if, Megatron could be lethal this week. I like Forte on the other side of the ball. This week Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice basically flat out admitted they don’t run the ball enough. Doug Martin: play anyone against the Saints! I like Martin here a lot. I think the ‘Skins try to run a lot, so for that and also matchup, Alfred Morris finds himself in the top-15.
16. Marques Colston
17. Rob Gronkowski
18. CJ Spiller
19. Stevan Ridley
20. Larry Fitzgerald
21. Darren Sproles
22. Reggie Wayne
23. Vincent Jackson
24. Dez Bryant
25. Miles Austin
26. Jason Witten
27. Mike Wallace
28. Felix Jones
29. Steve Johnson
30. Aaron Hernandez
...Aaaand The Byes Take Their Toll
I guess I’m saying: play your Cowboys. The Panthers defense has been atrocious, and this one could turn into either a shootout or a blowout. See above for my thoughts on Felix Jones, who should have a nice overall week 7. Rob Gronkowski falls out of the top-15. He’s been a bit dinged up and the Patriots are back to spreading it around. Last week, Mike Wallace was more or less the only usable Steelers receiver. Keep using him. CJ Spiller remains the more dynamic Bills back and has a wonderful matchup this week against the Titans in the other game I think we could see a lot of fantasy points scored in.
31. Fred Jackson
32. Jordy Nelson
33. Hakeem Nicks
34. Kenny Britt
35. Daryl Richardson
36. Steve Smith
37. James Jones
38. Alex Green
39. Kyle Rudolph
40. Andre Johnson
41. Mikel Leshoure
42. Antonio Brown
43. Jonathan Dwyer
44. Vick Ballard
45. Torrey Smith
The Pack Attack
I think Green Bay wins this week, and I think they win big. The only problem is, I don’t know the who and the how, outside of Aaron Rodgers. Alex Green is clearly the replacement for Cedric Benson, and I could see him getting a score here. Kenny Britt is getting back to speed in a hurry, and I think Matt Hasselbeck at the helm actually helps him. Again, I expect a lot of scoring in Buffalo this weekend. Donald Brown is out for another week at least, so Vick Ballard gets to go up against the Cleveland Defense. Mikel Leshoure has an awful matchup, but the Bears do bend-but-not-break and I could see him rack up some yardage from dump-offs.
46. Brandon Lloyd
47. Denarius Moore
48. Shonn Greene
49. Domenik Hixon
50. William Powell
51. Jeremy Kerley
52. Kendall Wright
53. Scott Chandler
54. Jimmy Graham
55. Josh Gordon
56. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
57. Owen Daniels
58. Jonathan Stewart
59. Anquan Boldin
60. Donnie Avery
Fill-ins
William Powell is in line for another 60-70 yard day. In a week with six teams on bye, you could do worse. I like Josh Gordon, but more importantly: so does Brandon Weeden. Gordon has two long scores in the past two weeks and it’s not like the Colts are the next coming of the Steel Curtain. Again, sticking with Bills-Titans being a high-scoring affair, I think Scott Chandler has a good chance at finding the end zone. Domenik Hixon is a very sneaky play this week against a bad Redskins secondary, don’t forget about him. Jimmy Graham at 54?! I must be insane! Look, ankles hurt. If you saw Graham against the Chargers, he looked more like a decoy than an elite receiving tight end. His drop in the rankings is due to uncertainty surrounding his injury, nothing more. If you have him, you’re likely playing him, but it’s a risk.
61. Jermaine Gresham
62. Heath Miller
63. Michael Bush
64. Mike Williams
65. Fred Davis
66. Jared Cook
67. DeAngelo Williams
68. Danny Woodhead
69. Brandon Pettigrew
70. Greg Olsen
71. Andrew Hawkins
72. Santana Moss
73. Devery Henderson
74. Lance Moore
75. Chris Givens
Tight Ends!
Yes, that’s the order I’d use them in. Yes, I’d rather use a lot of receivers this week. Don’t sleep on Santana Moss. With Pierre Garcon out, he could get more looks. I think I’d rather use Danny Woodhead than, say, Montario Hardesty or Ben Tate. Woodhead will at least get a few situational looks against a Jets defense that has performed well below expectation.
Best of luck in week 7! As always you can find me on twitter @petethegreekff