Sports writers use a lot of stats in their columns or at least as preparation for their columns, so I thought why not let you look at what the stats tell us rather than simply give you my opinion. You can find plenty of that each week in my other columns. Here's last week's By the Numbers column. Let's see how accurately predictive the historical data was in week 6.
The QB stats suggested starting Tom Brady, first overall. I think we can say that was a good call. Aaron Rodgers panned out too, but Matt Hasselbeck (very shocking he played so poorly), Marc Bulger and Jason Campbell all bombed. Yes, sometimes the numbers do lie. The same stats recommended sitting Mark Sanchez (5 interceptions) Matt Cassell and Trent Edwards (injured and left the game). Those seem like fair sits. But based on the statistical data they recommended sitting Drew Brees (4 TDs) and Philip Rivers (274 and a TD, eh so-so). I don't think anyone in their right mind would have benched Drew Brees, but I think 4 TDs was highly unexpected against the Giants defense.
The RB numbers suggested starting Knowshon Moreno, Rashard Mendenhall, Brian Westbrook, Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones. Of those, only Jones landed in the top 5 in fantasy production. The guys the stats suggested benching all had solid days, except the Browns RBs. Ray Rice was on that sit list and he blew up the Vikings top ranked rush defense.
The WR stats through the first 5 weeks predicted strong starts for Randy Moss and Wes Welker, but the numbers didn't pan out on the other top 4. Of the recommended sits, only Marques Colston was a bad call.
Finally, the TE stats suggested big days for guys who didn't do squat. The benching recommendations we're all correct including Antonio Gates, except for Vinsanthe Shiancoe who scored twice on 4 receptions. I call that an aberration.
As each week goes by the numbers should get more accurate but with only a few week's of stats, it's hard to be terribly predictive, when so many variables come into play. That's where knowledge and opinion come into play. But back to the stats.
Let’s get on to what this weeks numbers will tell us:
The top 5 easiest are the teams surrendering the most points to a given position. The guys listed are advisable plays. The top 5 toughest are the teams that surrender the least points at a given position. The guys listed are advisable sits, based solely on the numbers. Numbers are helpful, but no one's going to use them alone. As an example, this week the numbers say to bench Adrian Peterson vs. the Steelers, not going to happen.
– QB Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. QB |
Passing |
Rushing |
Fantasy |
||||||||
|
Team |
G |
Cmp |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
INT |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 7 Opp |
| 1. Cincinnati Bengals |
6 |
136 |
217 |
1,627 |
9 |
5 |
13 |
59 |
2 |
135.3 |
Jay Cutler |
| 2. Arizona Cardinals |
5 |
110 |
188 |
1,353 |
9 |
4 |
10 |
33 |
0 |
107.0 |
Eli Manning |
| 3. Kansas City Chiefs |
6 |
112 |
203 |
1,550 |
10 |
3 |
19 |
32 |
1 |
126.7 |
Philip Rivers |
| 4. St. Louis Rams |
6 |
126 |
188 |
1,577 |
8 |
5 |
22 |
98 |
1 |
126.7 |
Peyton Manning |
| 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
6 |
91 |
148 |
1,254 |
13 |
6 |
21 |
98 |
0 |
124.5 |
Tom Brady |
|
Top 5 Toughest vs. QB |
Passing |
Rushing |
Fantasy |
||||||||
|
Team |
G |
Cmp |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
INT |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 7 Opp |
| 28. New England Patriots |
6 |
110 |
184 |
1,161 |
7 |
4 |
11 |
22 |
0 |
88.3 |
Josh Johnson |
| 29. Indianapolis Colts |
5 |
120 |
195 |
1,065 |
2 |
4 |
11 |
31 |
1 |
70.4 |
Marc Bulger |
| 30. Washington Redskins |
6 |
103 |
173 |
1,095 |
5 |
3 |
22 |
90 |
0 |
83.8 |
Donovan McNabb |
| 31. Buffalo Bills |
6 |
107 |
200 |
1,103 |
6 |
9 |
13 |
38 |
0 |
83.0 |
Jake Delhomme |
| 32. New York Jets |
6 |
111 |
205 |
1,142 |
4 |
5 |
14 |
42 |
0 |
77.3 |
JaMarcus Russell |
– RB Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. RB |
Rushing |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||||
|
Team |
G |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 7 Opp |
| 1. Buffalo Bills |
6 |
190 |
1,001 |
8 |
29 |
233 |
1 |
177.4 |
DeAngelo Williams |
| 2. Cleveland Browns |
6 |
176 |
823 |
9 |
35 |
280 |
0 |
164.3 |
Ryan Grant |
| 3. San Diego Chargers |
5 |
142 |
640 |
6 |
31 |
265 |
1 |
132.5 |
Larry Johnson |
| 4. Oakland Raiders |
6 |
181 |
789 |
6 |
33 |
324 |
1 |
153.3 |
Thomas Jones |
| 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
6 |
187 |
905 |
6 |
18 |
124 |
1 |
144.9 |
Laurence Maroney |
|
Top 5 Toughest vs. RB |
Rushing |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||||
|
Team |
G |
Att |
Yard |
TD |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 7 Opp |
| 28. Washington Redskins |
6 |
160 |
603 |
2 |
27 |
152 |
0 |
87.5 |
Brian Westbrook |
| 29. Arizona Cardinals |
5 |
94 |
250 |
2 |
22 |
230 |
2 |
72.0 |
Brandon Jacobs |
| 30. New Orleans Saints |
5 |
93 |
348 |
3 |
23 |
155 |
0 |
68.3 |
Ronnie Brown |
| 31. Green Bay Packers |
5 |
133 |
477 |
1 |
19 |
134 |
0 |
67.1 |
Jamal Lewis |
| 32. Pittsburgh Steelers |
6 |
101 |
336 |
1 |
24 |
206 |
1 |
66.2 |
Adrian Peterson |
– WR Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. WR |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 7 Opp |
| 1. Kansas City Chiefs |
6 |
60 |
1,039 |
7 |
145.9 |
Vincent Jackson |
| 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
6 |
42 |
789 |
10 |
138.9 |
Moss/Welker |
| 3. Arizona Cardinals |
5 |
62 |
831 |
5 |
113.1 |
Nicks/Manningham |
| 4. Dallas Cowboys |
5 |
66 |
870 |
4 |
111.0 |
Roddy White |
| 5. San Francisco 49ers |
5 |
51 |
802 |
5 |
110.2 |
Andre Johnson |
|
Top 5 Toughest vs. WR |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 7 Opp |
| 28. New York Jets |
6 |
59 |
642 |
3 |
82.2 |
Louis Murphy |
| 29. New York Giants |
6 |
42 |
578 |
4 |
81.8 |
Larry Fitzgerald |
| 30. Philadelphia Eagles |
5 |
39 |
402 |
4 |
64.2 |
Santana Moss |
| 31. Carolina Panthers |
5 |
42 |
522 |
1 |
58.2 |
T.O./Lee Evans |
| 32. Buffalo Bills |
6 |
51 |
594 |
1 |
65.4 |
Steve Smith |
– TE Match-ups to Exploit or Avoid–
|
Top 5 Easiest vs. TE |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 7 Opp |
| 1. Minnesota Vikings |
6 |
41 |
519 |
4 |
75.9 |
Heath Miller |
| 2. Philadelphia Eagles |
5 |
31 |
365 |
3 |
54.5 |
Chris Cooley |
| 3. San Diego Chargers |
5 |
22 |
289 |
4 |
52.9 |
Sean Ryan |
| 4. Atlanta Falcons |
5 |
25 |
344 |
3 |
52.4 |
Jason Witten |
| 5. St. Louis Rams |
6 |
28 |
320 |
4 |
56.0 |
Dallas Clark |
|
Top 5 Toughest vs. TE |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
||||
|
Team |
G |
Rec |
Yard |
TD |
Ftsy Pts Allowed |
Week 7 Opp |
| 28. Washington Redskins |
6 |
17 |
222 |
1 |
28.2 |
Brent Celek |
| 29. Houston Texans |
6 |
19 |
245 |
0 |
24.5 |
Vernon Davis |
| 30. New Orleans Saints |
5 |
18 |
198 |
0 |
19.8 |
Anthony Fasano |
| 31. Indianapolis Colts |
5 |
23 |
177 |
0 |
17.7 |
Randy McMichael |
| 32. San Francisco 49ers |
5 |
18 |
169 |
0 |
16.9 |
Owen Daniels |
Note: The three teams that surrender the most points to QBs and WRs, Tennessee, Detroit and Jacksonville, are all on bye this week.
Other reads:
Week 7 – RB Start Sit
Week 7 – WR Start Sit
Week 7 – TE Start Sit
Week 6 – Fantasy Wrap Up
Weekly Start Sit Advice Column
What I was listening to while writing this week’s article, Kamelot:
