I was listening to sports radio this week and heard an interesting question: why doesn’t fantasy football qualify as gambling? After a semi-heated debate full of superlatives, hyperbole, and the occasional expletive it was “decided” that, at its essence, fantasy sports are a game of skill and not chance.
Tell that to the team that played Tony Romo, Adrian Peterson, Trent Richardson, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, and Jimmy Graham last week. That lineup would have produced a TOTAL of 26 points last week which, depending on your scoring rules, was possibly outscored by the Kansas City D/ST. That’s right. You could have sat everyone on your team outside of the Chiefs defensive unit and outscored the number one running back and tight end and two top-tier WRs and a top-5 QB, combined.
Thus we have the debate: fantasy, skill or chance?
Fantasy is a gambling game of chance!
Alright, let’s start with the argument against. It would go something like this:
Game of skill?
The “correct” week 6 top-5 fantasy wide receiver ranks would have been:
1) Vincent Jackson
2) Brandon Marshall
3) Justin Blackmon
4) Desean Jackson
5) Riley Cooper
Right. Clearly, a game of skill and predictability.
Meanwhile at quarterback in week 6, you would have won the ranking lottery by going with:
1) Cam Newton
2) Nick Foles
3) Andy Dalton
4) Matthew Stafford
5) Thad Lewis
Yeah. Thad Lewis.
At any second in the NFL, an injury could alter the landscape of the league and the future of a team. Even simply a strange game (perhaps one with lots of special team scoring, similar to Washington at Dallas Sunday night) could deny your team valuable fantasy points. There are simply too many variables to reliably predict an outcome with any degree of certainty. Injury, time of possession, the flow of the game… even a key dropped pass or two (See: Jeffery, Alshon, circa last Thursday night) can kill your fantasy week. Fantasy is “skill” in the same way Tarot cards or weather-predicting knee-pains on the front porch are a skill. That is to say: hooey! Hooey on you and your “game of skill!”
Nonsense! Fantasy sports revolve around skillful decisions and the accurate and timely interpretation of information.
I suppose the theme here is consistency. Even if you get your lineup or rankings “wrong” in one week, it doesn’t mean you should automatically overreact for the remainder of the season. I’m not rushing out to pick up Mike Glennon, for example. That’s a beginner’s blunder. While we can’t predict the future with certainty, we can make educated guesses and keep a close eye on emerging trends, team preferences, usage, talent, and a host of other factors which help make our lineup decisions. So what if we get things wrong every once in awhile and have a dud week? Jimmy Graham isn’t going to put up a goose egg every time out, it’s that simple. If you had the aforementioned players (that would have lost to the Chiefs D/ST in week 6) on your team, you’d likely be having a pretty good season, perhaps even a 5-1 record, and very realistic chances at your fantasy title. You can’t focus on the anomaly, you have to keep the faith and plow forwards, assimilating every metapixel of new information into your ever-evolving fantasy guru algorithm. (Actually, that’s a pretty accurate description of what I try to do mentally every week.)
Looking at season-long top scorers puts things more into perspective. The top-5 quarterbacks feature Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, and Matthew Stafford, with Aaron Rodgers, already with a bye, coming in at number 8. Admittedly, Rivers is a surprise, but overall as time drags on, the projections bear out. Over a large enough sample size, we can see a definite degree of consistency (and accuracy!) in conventional wisdom. Rankings rule the day in more cases than not and while there will always be the outlier and the exceptions to the rule, the point is simply that there is a rule, and that rule points to the ability to evaluate, and that ability to evaluate indicates that yes, indeed, skill is involved.
So, what do you think?
The debate, to me, remains interesting, though I side quite clearly with skill. It is possible to “dominate” beginner players who take their favorite NFL team’s kicker before worrying about other positions.
But, I’d love to hear from you. What do you believe? Fantasy sports: skill or chance?
Week 7 Top 75
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Lesean McCoy
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Arian Foster
6. Matt Forte
7. Knowshon Moreno
8. Dez Bryant
9. Brandon Marshall
10. Frank Gore
11. AJ Green
12. Demaryius Thomas
13. Wes Welker
14. Alfred Morris
15. Desean Jackson
Broncos Galore
Week 7 finds three Broncos in the top-15 and yeah, I think that’s about right. Play all your Denver guys. Simple. This just in: Chicago’s Defense is not Chicago’s Defense. You can run on the Bears. Heck, you can throw on them, too. I like Alfred Morris a lot this week. Even though Bears DT Stephen Paea is expected to return, their front four are not a fearsome unit at the moment. And while you can run on Chicago, you can throw on Washington. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and Matt Forte, who is a big part of the passing game, should hall have very nice weeks. You know who catches touchdowns? Wes Welker. And I think after Jim Irsay’s comments this week, the Broncos are going to stick it to Indy. Hard.
16. Pierre Garcon
17. Ray Rice
18. Victor Cruz
19. Reggie Bush
20. Calvin Johnson
21. Eddie Lacy
22. Giovani Bernard
23. Julius Thomas
24. Jason Witten
25. Tony Gonzalez
26. Doug Martin
26. Reggie Wayne
27. Jordy Nelson
28. Vernon Davis
29. Trent Richardson
30. Antonio Brown
It Gets Ugly…
Fast. We’re in a bye week and hey, people get hurt. I’m sort of hedging my bets with ranks 23-25, but yes, I like all this tight ends (and have them on a similar tier). With Jimmy Graham on bye, I don’t think there’s any TE I’d rather have in my lineup than Julius Thomas and yes, that includes Rob Gronkowski. I also like Witten a lot this week against a mediocre Eagles defense. I don’t know what Atlanta looks like sans Julio, but I am a little worried. Vernon Davis is the name I like least in this section and I’m worried about overreacting to his monster game. Nonetheless, he clearly has the talent to perform that well every week, perhaps now we will see his usage finally increase. I don’t know what to do with Megatron. I think he plays, but is this a Roddy White Decoy situation?
31. Fred Jackson
32. Vincent Jackson
33. Jordan Cameron
34. Josh Gordon
35. Antonio Gates
36. Torrey Smith
37. Hakeem Nicks
38. Justin Blackmon
39. Andre Johnson
40. Eric Decker
41. Bilal Powell
42. Le’Veon Bell
43. CJ Spiller
44. DeAngelo Williams
45. Keenan Allen
More Hedging
I like both Browns receiving options this week in what could be a high-scoring affair. The same could be said of the Chargers top two pass catchers, Gates and Allen. I think Allen’s touchdown streak continues, though predicting the same for his 100+ yard outings would be much bolder of me. Don’t worry, Torrey Smith will be fine. I really don’t know what to do with CJ Spiller, but I think you probably have to play him and cross your fingers. Le’Veon Bell isn’t pretty, but he doesn’t want to be. He gets carries and can knock his way into the endzone. I think I’m starting him in most leagues.
46. Larry Fitzgerald
47. Chris Johnson
48. Lamar Miller
49. Jermichael Finley
50. Greg Olsen
51. Brandon Jacobs
52. Joseph Randle
53. Martellus Bennett
54. Alshon Jeffery
55. TY Hilton
56. Danny Woodhead
57. Greg Jennings
58. Harry Douglas
59. Greg Olsen
60. Charles Clay
61. Mike Wallace
62. Stevan Ridley
63. Steve Smith
64. Zac Stacy
65. Maurice Jones-Drew
66. Ryan Matthews
67. James Jones
68. Anquan Boldin
69. Kyle Rudolph
70. Kenbrell Thompkins
71. Rueben Randle
72. Andre Ellington
73. Willis McGahee
74. Coby Fleener
75. Julian Edelman
Issues
No, I don’t think Rob Gronkowski plays. If word comes out that he will, I’d have him in the 46-50 range. I think all Vikings get a slight bump with Josh Freeman under center. Let’s see what he can do for that offense before going crazy, however. I’m not going nuts on Fitz after one strong week, especially with Seattle coming to town. Stevan Ridley, meanwhile, should get back to his disappointing ways. I’d love to be wrong on that one, but my gut tells me I’m not. I still think you want Olsen above Smith if you need to play a Carolina pass-catcher. Oh and hey, Andre Ellington is coming. Maybe not this week, but soon. To a theatre near you.
Best of luck in week 7. As always you can tweet me @petethegreekff.
