And now, for something completely different.
DeMarco Murray, Michael Jenkins, Tim Hightower, Earnest Graham, Beanie Wells, Matthew Stafford, Matt Hasselbeck, Plaxico Burress, The Kansas City Chiefs. Who would have thought, heading into week 8 of the 2011 NFL season, these names would be some of the most relevant to our fantasy discussion? I often wonder if I should attribute my early graying to playing multiple seasons of fantasy football. In fact, reflecting on previous years, it’s a marvel I even have any hair remaining at all. The uncertainty of draft day, the wreckage of injuries, the nervous consideration of legitimate trade offers, the pain of an underperforming stud, a stalled offense, having your top-rated defense get lit up when you only need a point or two either way to sway the tide of victory in your favor... I suspect it is little wonder we often compliment our weekly couch ritual of football with fine, malted beverages of the hops variety. After all, for the fantasy owner, our sorrows cannot even be quantified accurately to those nearest us on game day. At least as the fan of a professional team, your friends understand to “Leave Bill alone after that Colts debacle.” How can you possibly explain to them the horror that has befallen your precious Brady Bunch Waterslides or Dookie Cannonballs? There is no recourse, no comfort for the defeat of your intimately personal roster that you have drafted, managed, and prayed for since the pre-lockout days of yore.
Rather than a stroll down a nightmare-filled memory lane of fantasy, however, I offer you the same words of encouragement that have been ingrained in my psyche since the early years of my Cub fandom: there is always next year. On the morning after my many-storied, multi-cursed franchise announced perhaps the biggest news of, oh, the past century or so (Welcome to Wrigleyville, Theo Epstein), I find it quite apropos to remind all of you fantasy footballers of precisely the same mantra: there’s always next week. Part of the beauty of our chosen game is the ability to avenge losses, play the spoiler, or win dirty once every seven days. Despite the fantasy world being flipped on it’s head by serious injuries (see you after the ‘Skins are out o fthe playoff hunt, Santana Moss) or coaching decisions (welcome to primetime, Christian Ponder, Carson Palmer, and John Beck), I will say it again: there’s always next week.
Et bien, without further ado, to the ranks!
As always, you can tweet lineup questions to: @petethegreekff
MY MISSION STATEMENT
(or, to read more about how I detest mission statements, click here.
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
1. Arian Foster
2. Adrian Peterson
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Ray Rice
5. Fred Jackson
6. Ahmad Bradshaw
7. Calvin Johnson
8. Frank Gore
9. Ryan Matthews
10. Maurice Jones-Drew
11. Mike Wallace
12. DeMarco Murray
13. Wes Welker
14. Chris Johnson
15. Rashard Mendenhall
The Big Boys
Hey! Look at this! An excerpt from last week’s top-75!
“ I stubbornly refuse to put Mendenhall in my top-10… yet. He had one nice week and has an absolutely cake matchup against the little league Cardina… I mean Arizona. Everything screams that he’ll have a monster week… which is exactly why I’m ranking him as if he won’t. If there’s anything that has been consistent about Mendenhall this year it has been his ability to disappoint. Take, for example, his 18 carries for 37 yards against Indianapolis in week 3. “
Well, hm. 13 carries for 32 yards against “mighty” Arizona. Yup. Sounds about right. I don’t even want to put Mendenhall in my top-15 but he lands there by default. Again, we see a clear separation of the top backs into tiers: 1-6, then Gore, Jones-Drew, and Matthews, then everyone else... except for the wild card Murray. A performance like last week’s can’t be ignored, but I want more consistency, more field tests, before I have a strong feel as to how to rank and use him for fantasy purposes.
16. Darren Sproles
17. Jimmy Graham
18. Hakeem Nicks
19. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
20. Steven Jackson
21. Andre Johnson
22. Marques Colston
23. Jackie Battle
24. Steve Smith
25. Jason Witten
26. Dwayne Bowe
27. Dez Bryant
28. AJ Green
29. Miles Austin
30. Steve Johnson
Wide Out and Up
Wide receivers are making a big statement in ranks 16-30, and the statement is this: the RBBC or the “we pass first, too!” mentality of a large number of NFL teams has not-so-quietly affected how we must view the flex position in fantasy. Jimmy Graham clearly remains Drew Brees’ top target, and the formerly paper-bag-clad ‘Aints now clearly have no problem running up the score on weaker foes. Did anyone else get the sense, watching Sunday night’s game, that karmic retribution would soon be visited on New Orleans? I was wondering where the old Irish guy in the corner was with the towel, and why he wasn’t throwing it in. Someone end this bloodbath! Consequently, Colston and Graham are must-starts... especially against Aint Louis (see what I did there?). I may be too high on AJ Green, but my he does produce. And no, I don’t like Seattle to participate in a total-single-digits game two weeks in a row. Call it a hunch, but I expect some scoring here. And with Cedric Benson out, well, that can’t be bad news for Green. Of note: Dez Bryant again surpasses Miles Austin, though yes, I still like Witten above both... for now. He’s the model of consistency and the apple of Romo’s eye.
31. Aaron Hernandez
32. Jeremy Maclin
33. Desean Jackson
34. Knowshon Moreno
35. Daniel Thomas
36. Ryan Torain
37. Johnathan Stewart
38. Brandon Marshall
39. Fred Davis
40. Antonio Gates
41. Brandon Lloyd
42. Pierre Garcon
43. Deion Branch
44. Rob Gronkowski
45. Brandon Pettigrew
46. Mark Ingram
47. Anquan Boldin
48. Sidney Rice
49. Mario Manningham
50. Pierre Garcon
Gut Calls
Many New England Patriots fight their way up the rankings, and with good cause. Pittsburgh’s defense so far has been unimpressive, which in itself is only a halfway interesting thing to say. Until you look at who they have played: Seattle, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Arizona. That’s five relatively cake matchups from seven weeks. And now New England comes to town. Yes, gimme Hernandez, Gronkowski, and pretty much anyone in the blue, red, and silver. I don’t think this one will be pretty, or close. To date, the Steelers are giving up less than 6 fantasy points/game to tight ends. That will change. Johnathan Stewart is splitting goal-line carries with his quarterback, but that and an increased workload in general is making him very fantasy-friendly, and going forward I like him much better than his Carolina counterpart, DeAngelo Williams. Of course, we need to keep an eye on the Antonio Gates situation, but I think he should continue to improve and will be moving up the ranks quickly. Anquan Boldin looked like about the only guy willing to make a play on the Ravens offense for much of Monday night. The guy is good, period. It’s not his fault that Baltimore has been so inept. I think both Eagles receivers should have a nice game, and have ranked them in the order I’d feel more comfortable starting them.
51. Vernon Davis
52. Montario Hardesty
53. Owen Daniels
54. Mike Tolbert
55. Bernard Scott
56. Jabar Gaffney
57. Delone Carter
58. Demariyus Thomas
59. Greg Little
60. Reggie Wayne
61. Alfonso Smith
62. Maurice Morris
63. Pierre Thomas
64. Nate Washington
65. DeAngelo Williams
66. Michael Jenkins
67. Michael Crabtree
68. Greg Olsen
69. Ben Tate
70. Steve Breaston
71. Roy Helu
72. Antonio Brown
73. Eric Decker
74. Percy Harvin
75. David Nelson
I believe...
That Peyton Hillis won’t play. That Delone Carter will be the feature back in Indianapolis quite soon. That Roy Helu will follow suit in Washington. That Led Zeppelin was the greatest band ever. That Steve Breaston has fantasy value. That Greg Olsen will have a better week than last. That there is room for two backs to have value in Houston. In Michael Jenkins. In Christian Ponder. That Jabar Gaffney will benefit from Santana Moss’ absence, though not as much as you’d think. That Pittsburgh will be playing catchup (hello, Antonio Brown). That Buffalo will start throwing again. In Karma.
Best of luck, minions.
_PDK