This Friday, we’ll again examine five pressing issues facing fantasy owners; five things that could dramatically affect your season down the stretch.
1. The Jamaal Charles Situation
Earlier this season, I made the case for Jamaal Charles (https://fantasyknuckleheads.com/the-case-for-jamaal-charles/) as a high (second round?) draft pick. After his explosion early on against New Orleans, it looked like quite the brilliant move. Now, not so much. After three straight dude performances, Charles looks to be more of a problem than an asset. Even worse, last night on Thursday Night Football, he suffered an injury (currently being termed a “neck” injury) on a brutal hit off a dump-off.
Let’s start with the injury. Charles was able to jog off the field under his own power and later said he felt he could have returned to the game. Assuming it’s as not-serious as Charles himself makes it out to be, the bigger question is his usage. In the last three weeks, Charles has received 12, 5 and 12 carries... maddening. It’s unrealistic (and probably unhealthy) to expect 20-30 carries each week, but 29 carries over THREE weeks? Charles’ schedule down the stretch isn’t entirely terrible, with a nice matchup against Carolina in week 13 and then a tilt with Indianapolis in week 16, the fantasy playoffs. But, he’s certainly a huge question mark heading forward as long as the Kansas City offense as a whole continues to be so depressingly anemic.
2. Miami Dolphins Running Backs
In 2012, Reggie Bush has had more games with fewer than 15 carries than he has had with 15 carries or more. From week 3 through today, he has only caught the ball nine times. Nine. Nine times in five games. While Daniel Thomas isn’t exactly hauling in passes either (only four during that same time span), last week, Thomas saw more carries than Bush (15 to 14) and was the only Dolphins back to find the endzone. This week, the Fins have a great matchup against a sub-par Indianapolis Colts’ run defense. If Bush can’t get on track now, I’m worried. More importantly, Thomas needs to be owned in all leagues. The next three weeks, the Dolphins play the Colts, Titans, and Bills. Yup.
3. Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Darren Sproles
Sometime this week, Darren Sproles broke his hand. At least that’s what we must all assume, since he played Monday night and seemed quite fine. The bigger story here, of course, is how does this impact the rest of the Saints? Sproles was a great “move the chains” guy. He could take a dumpoff, bounce it outside, and wind up with a first down and more. Who replaces him? For my money, I think Pierrer Thomas gets a big upgrade this week and beyond, until Sproles returns. Yes, Mark Ingram will probably get a few more looks as well, but Thomas is the trusted veteran who was always more involved in the passing game, anyway. I picture Thomas’ usage as a plug-n-play bigger version of Sproles who makes up for the speed difference with size and power. Like the Miami Thomas, Pierre is a must-add in all leagues.
4. Detroit Wide Receivers
Calvin Johnson has been dealing with a knee issue for awhile and, while he has played through it, he obviously hasn’t been the same Calvin Johnson. With Nate Burleson out for the year, Titus Young, a pre-season sleeper for many, has stepped up and become a very viable no. 2 WR. ...But don’t sleep on Ryan Broyles. Or Mike Thomas. Between the two, I’m sticking with Broyles over recently-acquired former-Jaguar Thomas mainly because of his familiarity with the offense. Broyles has scored in two straight weeks and seen a significant uptick in playing time. Still, Thomas interests me. Detroit would only make such a move if they felt they’d need him, and I don’t buy the Burleson injury as roster-outlook-changing. I think the Lions are more concerned about Megatron than they’ve been letting on and, if they slowly get nudged out of the NFC playoff picture, I wouldn’t be surprised if we begin to hear rumors of Detroit shutting down Calvin.
5. What happened to the Vikings?
In two words: Christian Ponder. Of course, Adrian Peterson is still a must-start when he’s health, as is Percy Harvin, but no other Viking, most notably Kyle Rudolph and the Minny D, is usable. The Vikings have been shredded on the ground in two straight weeks and now represent a tasty matchup for opposing rushers. As such, their offensive unit hasn’t been on the field as frequently and, last Thursday, looked disjointed and out of sync. Now, news has come down that Peterson was limited in practice this week on Wednesday and Thursday and has not yet appeared in Friday’s workouts. The Vikings - on both sides of the ball- should demand a fantasy owner’s attention in week nine.
On to the Flex!
MY MISSION STATEMENT
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people. And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
Week 9 Top 75
1. Arian Foster
2. LeSean McCoy
3. Matt Forte
4. Marshawn Lynch
5. Alfred Morris
6. Ray Rice
7. Trent Richardson
8. Adrian Peterson
9. AJ Green
10. Doug Martin
11. Brandon Marshall
12. CJ Spiller
13. Darren McFadden
14. Willis McGahee
15. Demaryius Thomas
The Big Boys
Yes, that’s the order I’d use the top RBs in, given the option. Rice should be fine, but the Ravens lackluster performance in Houston coupled with some tasty matchups for Forte, Lynch, and Morris, bump him down a few spots. While I’m not totally concerned about Peterson’s injury, owners do need to keep an eye on it. I still like Spiller’s explosiveness over the rest of the second-tier of running backs (an extended tier one includes Doug Martin, though you could argue Arian Foster is in a tier by himself). I’m not huge on the Denver offense, despite appearances, but they are at the very least reliable.
16. Reggie Wayne
17. Rashad Jennings
18. Calvin Johnson
19. Victor Cruz
20. Percy Harvin
21. Jimmy Graham
22. Michael Turner
23. Reggie Bush
24. Marques Colston
25. Julio Jones
26. Roddy White
27. Eric Decker
28. Jeremy Maclin
29. Ahmad Bradshaw
30. Chris Johnson
Question Marks Galore
Will Calvin Johnson play? For this week, I still think yes. He has played through his injury thus far and I expect him to do it again. Reggie Bush’s question marks are covered significantly above, but Ahmad Bradshaw’s aren’t: namely, he’s banged up. While he did see 22 carries last week, I wonder what that number would have looked like had New York not been up 23-0 before half. Chris Johnson has a dreadful matchup, but the Bears do give up a lot of underneath stuff and CJ0K is still fast and Brian Urlacher is still old. The surprise name on this tier is probably Jeremy Maclin, but he has lead the Eagles in catches and targets the last two weeks and I’ve said it before I’ll say it again: play EVERYONE against the Saints.
31. Michael Turner
32. Vincent Jackson
33. Denarius Moore
34. Mike Wallace
35. Mikel LeShoure
36. Miles Austin
37. Jordy Nelson
38. Jason Witten
39. Steve Smith
40. Fred Jackson
41. Larry Fitzgerald
42. Pierre Thomas
43. Hakeem Nicks
44. Tony Gonzalez
45. Andre Johnson
Statements
I understand Fred Jackson is significantly lower than CJ Spiller, and this may be foolish. Still, I like Spiller’s upside enough to move him up: he has big-play ability and when he is in the game, the Bills’ offense runs through him. The same is true for Fred Jackson, he’s just not as explosive. I always review my own rankings and I’m surprised Steve Smith fell this low. He has a great matchup. I guess my main concern is that with Brandon LaFell likely out, the Redskins can focus on taking Smith away. Whether or not they will be able to is another story entirely. Yup, Fitz is falling. Fast. If word comes down that Nelson is definitively OK and plays, then he needs moved up.
46. Isaac Redman
47. Donald Brown
48. Dez Bryant
49. Desean Jackson
50. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
51. Randall Cobb
52. Heath Miller
53. Alex Green
54. Titus Young
55. Owen Daniels
56. James Jones
57. Torrey Smith
58. Mike Williams
59. Antonio Brown
60. Cecil Shorts
61. Kenny Britt
62. Josh Gordon
63. Daniel Thomas
64. Vick Ballard
65. Sidney Rice
66. Steve Johnson
67. Lance Moore
68. Kendall Wright
69. Brent Celek
70. Earl Bennett
71. Joique Bell
72. Greg Olsen
73. Martellus Bennett
74. Brandon Pettigrew
75. Anquan Boldin
Welcome to the Machine
The bottom end of the flex rankings is always a balance between opportunity and upside... the top-end players of course always tend to possess both. Take for example Brandon Pettigrew versus Josh Gordon. While Pettigrew consistently sees more looks, they are on shorter routes and he hasn’t found the endzone frequently. Gordon sees longer bombs but without as many looks. At the bottom of my roster, I typically tend to favor upside over opportunity. If I’m making the decision for a flex or WR/RB3, I want the guy who could win me my week over the guy who guarantees 5-7 points. One of those guys on the low end? How about Lance Moore. With Sproles out, Moore could also benefit. Or how about Earl Bennett against a terrible Tennessee defense? I expect defenses to pay extra attention to Marshall, and Bennett has Cutler’s trust.
Best of luck in week 9! As always you can tweet me: @petethegreekff
