Ah, the many things I used to know. To some degree, there is a great comfort in certainties. I feel, in my younger days, I was certain of many more things. I will never like Michael Bolton. The Cubs will never win a world series. Soccer has no chance to catch on in America. I will never purchase a minivan. Wendy’s is better than McDonald’s, lagers are better than IPAs. Tim Tebow is not an NFL quarterback. I will never, ever, lose to my girlfriend in a footrace. Chris Johnson is a fantasy stud.
Last week, the last two (at least) were proven to be not-so-certain after all. To be frank, I’m not certain which is more embarrassing: my defeat by more than a minute and a half in a 5k run at the hands of a much smaller person of the female variety or CJ2K’s 2011 performance to date, which may soon result in an increased workload for the very pedestrian Javon Ringer. With the way Mr. Johnson has played thus far, I actually would put significant money on my girlfriend taking him out in a 5k, too. And while no, I don’t expect to break out into When a Man Loves a Woman any time soon, I am slowly learning, as I age gracefully into non-fleetness of foot, that many things are not as certain as they may seem, or, more drastically, that “certainties” may not exist at all. Take for example New Orleans v. St. Louis, week 8 of the 2011 NFL season: who in their right mind saw that coming? While many a fantasy owner simply couldn’t wait for their pudgy, pizza-grease covered digits to click-in any Saint available to a starting roster spot, the Rams were busy writing quite a different and unexpected plot.
To the point: I am often asked “Why this guy over that one? C’mon dude, I just feel it. Bernard Berrian is going to go off. Trust me.” To which I’ll reply: start him. In my ranks, I attempt to use a semi-subjective numerical system (read about it here) to objectify my weekly predictions. That is to say: there is no certainty. And while it may be true that any rankings column will be guess work at heart, the idea to remember is it’s guess-work based on certain factors: past performance, current production, touches, targets, carries, matchup... in short, we do what we can with what we have where we are. Thanks for the assist, Teddy Roosevelt. Who would have thought that the 26th president of the United States would have such a firm grasp on how to set a fantasy football lineup. Wait, actually, that makes perfect sense.
To ze numbahs!
1. Arian Foster
2. Matt Forte
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Michael Turner
5. Fred Jackson
6. Ray Rice
7. LeGarette Blount
8. Greg Jennings
9. Frank Gore
10. Wes Welker
11. Ahmad Bradshaw
12. Mike Wallace
13. Steven Jackson
14. Darren McFadden
15. DeMarco Murray
The Big Boys
Go ahead. Tell me the Bears are 8th best in limiting fantasy points to running backs. Now ask me how much I care. LeSean McCoy is the real deal. As is Forte... the man needs a contract. Make it happen, Jerry Angelo. And did I mention the Eagles are giving up nearly 22/game to opposing backs? Yup. True story. This week’s top-15 have a ton of question marks, so let’s start there. I am ranking LeGarette Blount as if I believe the news that he will get most of the third-down work, as well as his normal load. I am ranking Ahmad Bradshaw as if he will play his usual amount of snaps. I am ranking Darren McFadden as if he will play per usual but come out if Oakland gets a large lead (though frankly, with Carson Palmer taking snaps, that’s probably a foolish prognostication). If we receive any further news on any of the above issues, your value and usage of the aforementioned players will need to be adjusted accordingly.
16. Beanie Wells
17. Darren Sproles
18. Jackie Battle
19. AJ Green
20. Jimmy Graham
21. Marques Colston
22. Cedric Benson
23. Shonn Greene
24. Roddy White
25. Rashard Mendenhall
26. Larry Fitzgerald
27. Dwayne Bowe
28. Jermichael Finley
29. Dez Bryant
30. Jeremy Maclin
Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde
AKA the New Orleans Saints. In between two stinkers (at Tampa and last week’s debacle against the Rams), they hang 62 on Indianapolis. Maybe the Colts really are trying to just suck for Luck. Please, don’t google the preceding sentence-ending rhyme at work. Most of the websites you’ll find are likely not work-friendly, depending on your occupation. I guess I’m predicting a more Jekyll-esque performance this week, at home against a division rival. Thus my love for Sproles and Colston. What is Jermichael Finley doing in my top-30? Have I lost my mind? This is my gut call of the week. I think the Packers will want to get Finley, a huge playmaker when he was healthy in ‘09 and ‘10, involved more in the offense. I think it starts this week, after the bye. I still have faith that Finley, not Jordy Nelson, is the no. 2 target in Green Bay... just as Maclin is the top target in Philly, though it is worth noting that the Bears give up more fantasy points to the tight end than anybody... and Celek is on a hot streak. I really dislike ranking both Greene and Mendenhall this high, but they are both the primary ball-carrier on teams who will still run a reasonable amount. If you have them on your roster, you’re probably using them.
31. Jason Witten
32. Brandon Lloyd
33. Antonio Gates
34. Miles Austin
35. Steve Johnson
36. Chris Johnson
37. Julio Jones
38. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
39. Vincent Jackson
40. Hakeem Nicks
41. Mike Tolbert
42. Brandon Marshall
43. DeSean Jackson
44. Victor Cruz
45. Owen Daniels
46. James Starks
47. Aaron Hernandez
48. Anquan Boldin
49. Mario Manningham
50. Rob Gronkowski
Pecking Order
I simply didn’t want to rank Nicks. Even though he may play, I’m not sure what to do with a banged up receiver. One run could end his day. But, OK, for the sake of the Giants pecking order I like: Nicks/Cruz/Manningham. Patriots: Hernandez/Gronkowski/Branch. Chargers: Gates/Jackson/Tolbert (assuming Matthews sits). Cowboys: Bryant for explosive possibility, Witten for targets, Austin for “hey, he can’t be this bad and inconsistent.” I’ve seen a lot of rankers sour on Steve Johnson. I haven’t. His matchup is atrocious but he remains the top target in the Bills passing game. I think you could do a lot worse... even this week. In 2010 he caught 8 passes for 103 yards and a score... not exactly stellar but still reasonable, and the Bills are much improved this season.
51. Fred Davis
52. Knowshon Moreno
53. Pierre Garcon
54. Daniel Thomas
55. Sidney Rice
56. Jordy Nelson
57. Antonio Brown
58. Pierre Thomas
59. Delone Carter
60. Santonio Holmes
61. Darrius Heyward-Bey
62. Reggie Wayne
63. Peyton Hillis
64. Nate Washington
65. Pierre Thomas
66. Mike Williams
67. Vernon Davis
68. Deion Branch
70. Greg Little
71. Eric Decker
72. James Jones
73. Jabar Gaffney
74. Jonathan Baldwin
75. Kevin Walter
Undesirable
I really didn’t want to rank Hillis until he played, but in bye-shortened weeks you sometimes have to get creative, even as a ranker. Jonathan Baldwin looked good on Monday. And despite the excessive use of superlatives by the overly energetic Monday Night Football crew, I actually am going to go ahead and believe some of the hype. I think Greg Little, despite letting me down two weeks in a row, remains a good sleeper play, or fill-in as necessary. I’d prefer to stay away from all Raiders and Redskins until further notice (or, say, until they find a real quarterback), but if you’re down this far, desperate, or deep, go for it. I really don’t want to leave Reggie Wayne for dead just yet, but soon we may have to. Dallas Clark already has been carrion for the carrying for some time. One more pecking order? How about the Saints: Graham/Colston/Thomas/everyone else. I think Ben Roethlisberger is finally figuring out what he has in Antonio Brown... let’s see how long it takes the rest of the league to do the same.
As always, best of luck. You can tweet your lineup questions to: @petethegreekff
_PDK