Welcome comrades to my weekly NFL football picks column. My aim is to help you with some tough choices, whether it be in your office pool or betting against the spread. I will provide analysis and commentary for both.
~NFL football picks for the office pool~
Week Eleven 12-4 Season prediction tally: 107-53
Thanksgiving
Green Bay at Detroit- What an awesome finish by Matthew Stafford against Cleveland. If he becomes a great QB, we'll be watching that as one of his career highlights ten years from now. Unfortunately for Stafford, part of the glory was getting a separated shoulder on the next to last play which will likely keep him out of this contest. I like Green Bay to keep their momentum as they march towards playoff contention.
Pick: Packers
Oakland at Dallas- The Cowboys are the worst 7-3 team I have ever seen, and if they lose to Oakland I don't know if there can be any debating that they are the worst 7-4 team in the history of professional football, period. It just doesn't seem right that this game is a toss-up.
Pick: Cowboys
N.Y. Giants at Denver- Denver has really struggled lately and couldn't stop San Diego, the league's worst rushing team, from gaining over 200 yards this past game. I like Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw's chances.
Pick: Giants
Sunday
Seattle at St. Louis- Yuck. Two bad teams. Who is worse? I am not sure, but at least Seattle will be fielding their No.1 QB.
Pick: Seahawks
Carolina at N.Y. Jets- What has happened to the Jets? I like DeAngelo and Stewart to carry the Panthers.
Pick: Panthers
Tampa Bay at Atlanta- The Buccaneers plummeted back to reality against the Saints. News flash: they aren't very good.
Pick: Falcons
Miami at Buffalo- The Dolphins didn't seem to miss Ronnie Brown much after all. In a surprise to many they nearly abandoned the wildcat and ran *gasp* a conventional offense in beating the Panthers in their last outing. The Bills are a tougher test than most give them credit for, but the 'Fins have too many weapons now that Ted Ginn has found his sticky mitts.
Pick: Dolphins
Washington at Philadelphia- The Redskins can't score enough points to keep up even when the Eagles are not at the top of their game.
Pick: Eagles
~Lock of the Week= Bengals over Browns~
Cleveland at Cincinnati- Of the Bengals three losses, two have been flukes. Cleveland won't be able to keep the game close enough to make something like that happen for them.
Pick: Bengals
Indianapolis at Houston- I keep picking Indy to lose and they keep finding a way to win. Houston is getting desperate though and almost won in their last meeting.
Pick: Texans
Jacksonville at San Francisco- I like the 49ers to play spoiler in this one because they are 6th against the run.
Pick: 49ers
Kansas City at San Diego- Kansas City is quietly coming on strong, winners of two in a row and three of their last five. Unfortunately, San Diego is too, having gotten their defense and running game back on track.
Pick: Chargers
Chicago at Minnesota- The Vikings are too good and the Bears are not.
Pick: Vikings
~Upset Special= Titans over Cardinals~
Arizona at Tennessee- While Arizona has been road warriors this season with a 5-0 mark, if Kurt Warner is held out with "concussion-like symptoms" (what a joke—call it a concussion already and get on with it), Leinart is a sitting duck. This is one of those games where the Titan's 4-6 record means nothing. VY has the team rolling on a four-game winning streak and their defense is back.
Pick: Titans
Pittsburgh at Baltimore- Maybe the Steelers and the Ravens just aren't that great this year for once? That late Joe Flacco interception with Baltimore knocking on the door against Indy killed my Upset Special last week. This week I am going to plan on him being quite upset about that blunder.
Pick: Ravens
Monday
New England at New Orleans- The Patriots may be the Saints toughest test so far. The only problem is that the Saints are the Patriots toughest test so far as well. I'll take the home team in this one simply because no tandem runs harder this season than Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell.
Pick: Saints
~Against the spread picks~
This is where things get a little tricky. Veterans know that when you bet against the spread you aren’t simply picking the winner, you are also betting how close the loser will be on the scoreboard. When betting against the spread, if you choose the team that’s favored, they must win by more than the spread number in order for you to get credit for a correct pick. If you choose the underdog, they have to lose by less than the spread number in order for you to get credit.
Week Eleven 3-2 Season prediction tally: 91-68 and my BetUS.com followers are loving me.
I fell to 3-2 after two weeks of 4-1, but am pleased that I nailed the Texans-Titans outcome to a tee—"I expect the Titans to win by a field goal or less"
@MINNESOTA (-11.0) vs Chicago (+11.0) = Bet Minnesota
The Vikings are rolling and the Bears are drowning.
@SAN DIEGO (-13.5) vs Kansas City (+13.5) = Bet Kansas City
San Diego should win, and blew them out last time 37-7. KC keeps most games close and should be amped to keep this one close too.
@TENNESSEE (off) vs Arizona (off) = Bet Tennessee
I'm going with VY and the Titans even though I am an AZ fan. If Warner gets to play, he will be hit a lot, and if Leinart plays, they may as well forfeit.
Seattle (-3.0) @ST LOUIS (+3.0) = Bet Seattle
These teams both stink, but the Rams will be bringing in a cold QB whereas Hasselbeck will start for Seattle.
@DALLAS (-13.5) vs Oakland = Bet Oakland
Dallas may be 7-3 but they are struggling offensively as of late, and the Oakland secondary is their strength. Plus, Bruce Gradkowski appears better suited to be the No.1 QB in Oakland than the benched Jamarcus Russell, I think he can get something going on the scoreboard.
