Would You Take That Bet?
After another week in the NFL has passed and there have been a few things I have noticed, in regards to surprise performances and weekly starts in the early stages of the regular season. Offensive players like Ray Rice (who this site was very high on this year), Steve Breaston (who has been very consistent early), Matt Forte (who's having a sophomore slump) and Johnny Knox, etc..etc... have become tough projections in the early stages of the season. The main reasoning for that is, we are all still trying to get a good feel for how teams are game-planning for one another in the running and passing-games. In short, who or what players are playing good enough to get (shut-down) schemed against defensively?
Obviously this aspect of fantasy football seems like a no-brain-er, good match-up and bad match-up, but everyone knows in football any given Sunday jobs can be won (due to injury or poor play) and lost on the field. So the best we can possibly do is take a long look at the match-up offensively and defensively to give ourselves the best possible scenario to project a solid outcome by weeks end....Hey, let's face it, if we were psychic we wouldn't feel as torn throwing out projections and starts.
This week we are going to give our readers a chance to join in on all the fun, we are going to discuss some scenarios that might be a stretch in terms of projections, but truly possible feats that can be accomplished. This segment should allow the readers to voice their opinions on how far-fetched these outcomes really are, and gives Top Fantasy Football a chance to gain insight on your conundrums throughout the week and hopefully prep you for week 7.
Let's get started!
1) Donald Brown and Joseph Addai rush for over 200 yards and 3 TD's against St.Louis.
My take: It's not too far fetched given the play of the Rams defense in the early stages of the season (picked up as of late), but Peyton Manning is known for throwing the ball in the end-zone against poor defenses who can't contain his weapons. Result, Brown and Addai are rostered for a reason and should especially be used in games with a favorable match-up, so with Manning's arm and his RB's fresh legs this game should be controlled by the Colts and produce solid rushing totals and receiving totals across the board......The question is, with a timeshare and potent passing-game, would you take that bet?
2) The Jets defense gets 5 sacks and forces 4 turnovers against the Raiders.
My take: With Ryan clearly upset over the last few games this team has had, he might just want to send a message to Oakland early and often. I can see the Jets consistently blitzing the Oakland offensive line to disrupt any kind of rhythm they might try and get into, leading the way for Harris and Pace to fill up on sacks. Rex Ryan will want to score early and give his protege some confidence after two sub-par performances, so they should be planning on a field position battle to ease the youngsters confidence back where it should be....The question is, with a tired and banged up Jets defense, would you take that bet?
3) Ronnie Brown rushes for 100 yards and 2 TD's against New Orleans.
My take: It's highly unlikely the Saints are going to let the most important part of the Dolphins offense get going, Sean Peyton will look to completely shut-down the Ronnie Brown show for the night with an improved defense, but I don't think it is that easy. With Pennington out and Brown focusing on the Wildcat, the only thing that is going to stop Miami from running the ball is a lack of talent out of the back-field...and that's not happening anytime soon. Miami continues to give Brown the opportunity to control the clock (keeping Brees off the field) throughout the game, and good defenses have been stymied by Browns vision and ability, this should be a question mark game for New Orleans....The question is, against an improved defense and potent offense, would you take that bet?
4) Adrian Peterson rushes for 3 TD's against Pittsburgh.
My take:This scenario seems highly unlikely, or does it? Given Peterson's ability to do damage to even the best of defenses, I think Peterson has a very good chance of piling up TD's against Pittsburgh. If Favre continues to show blitzing defenses he can throw the ball quickly and establish some respect in the passing-game early, that should open the door for the most dominating RB in the league to exploit Pittsburgh's red-zone defense often. With Minnesota's high octane defensive line (Jared Allen and company) against Roethlisberger's potential for sacks, Peterson could wind up touching the ball in the red-zone more than people think......The question is, facing the number one ranked rush defense, would you take that bet?
5) Steve Smith (CAR) catches 8 balls for 120 yards and 1 TD against Buffalo.
My take: The way this season has been going for Smith you would think that was a joke....but I'm not joking. Smith has let his patience get the better of him for too long, he is now very upset at his role in the offense and has made it known publicly. The problem with Smith is not his ability, it's his QB! Through five Carolina Panthers regular season games Smith has been nothing but an afterthought after a really poorly thrown deep-ball, and he's pissed about it. If Jake Delhomme doesn't provide Smith with some decent opportunities in the passing-game this scenario will get very ugly, look for Delhomme to throw a lot of quick slants in week seven to give Smith a chance at a big game......The question is, with underwhelming stats and shaky QB play, would you take that bet?
6) Hakeem Nicks leads Giants WR's in yards and TD's against Arizona.
My Take: This kid is showing that you can't keep him off the field anymore, against the Cardinals on Sunday night is usually the time for big-play WR's to showcase their ability....and this kid's got tons! Even with two talented WR's ahead of him, he still stands out to me as the best WR on that team. Coughlin is not a stupid coach, he sees the perfect decoys ahead of him and will use the match-up to benefit Nicks in a big way. Nicks favors very much to Anquan Boldin and seems to have incredible run after the catch ability. This game could prove to be another shoot-out with Jacobs nursing injuries, I think Nicks is overlooked (in fantasy and real football) and will showcase his talents again, this time in the Sunday night spotlight.......The question is, with two more accomplished WR's playing ahead of him, would you take that bet?
7) Michael Turner runs for 100 yards and 2 TD's against Dallas.
My take: Norwood (their pass-catcher out of the backfield) is nursing an injury suffered against the Bears last week and Turner should be ready to tote the rock more in the second half of the season, the coaching staff stated earlier in the year they wanted to lighten Turner's load for the first half of the season to keep him fresh for the stretch..... well so far so good. They have followed through with their plans so far, but they might be forced to start giving him the increased load with Norwood sidelined. Turner should be very active against Dallas and we will see if Turner can bust into the 30 touches he saw last year, he will also catch a few balls for PPR purposes.....The question is, with Atlanta on the road and Dallas coming off a bye fresh and hungry for a victory, would you take that bet?
Please voice your opinions, as it will help create more insight to different scenarios that may occur during the course of the game. This article is meant to spark an interesting look at certain scenarios that seem likely and unlikely, there is no way to predict any outcome of a game unless you are playing it. Hopefully some of you will join in on this conversation and give us your point of view for the upcoming week, and remember to sign up for our Dominator Service for all the earliest updates on your players throughout the week.
