Week 12 Recap: Three of my four starts were in the top half of points scored for team defenses in week 12, on the other side, my sits for the week also went 3-for-4, with my lone bad sit being Tampa Bay. When I look for team defenses in week 13, we start to look specifically at previous numbers from total defense as well as statistics from what a defense is projected to do versus many different specific offenses. Here are the start sit team defense for week 13.
Start ‘em: Week Thirteen Team Defenses
Chicago Bears @ DET: With Shaun Hill at least done for this upcoming game versus the Bears with a broken index finger, I think there is no way this Bears front four does not dominate this game and reek havoc on Drew Stanton and this offensive line. Chicago’s defense has scored double digit fantasy points in their last four games prior to facing Michael Vick and I really think they will be happy to see a quarterback like Drew Stanton back there that they will not have to worry about scrambling and making the type of plays Vick could last week. The Bears have scored double-digit fantasy points on defense in every single road game so far this year and I see that streak extending this Sunday.
Green Bay Packers vs SF: So far this week, there is a simple formula for starting certain defenses like the Bears and Packers: injuries sometimes hurt teams more than individuals. With Frank Gore sidelined for the season with a broken hip, the 49ers will evidently struggle to run the ball with Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon against one of the most stingy run defenses in football in the Green Bay Packers. Just like the Bears D, GB has scored double-digit fantasy points in four straight games before playing the Falcons last week and have scored double-digit fantasy points in every home game but one this year, and I also really believe that streak will continue when Green Bay ends up putting a ton of pressure on Troy Smith to take over this game for San Francisco.
Kansas City Chiefs vs DEN: Over the past 3 weeks, the Kansas City defense has really underperformed; with a total of 14 team defense fantasy points over that span, the Chiefs are due for a defensive performance. I believe the cure to that sickness will be the Broncos heading to Arrowhead to face this team defense. What has killed the Chiefs team defense is two weeks on the road where they scored negative team defense points. The Chiefs will run the ball an absolute ton in this game and that will take away time of possession from the Broncos which will allow the Chiefs defense to be fresh when on the field in this game. This game will be payback for a 20-point loss to the Broncos in Denver in week 10 and I expect the Chiefs to cause a few turnovers and dominate this game from whistle to whistle.
Baltimore Ravens vs PITT: With Pittsburgh’s offensive line really struggling this season, I expect Baltimore to pressure Roethlisberger a ton in this game and one of the reasons I am buying there defense on Sunday Night Football is there inept ability to both get to the quarterback and to cause multiple turnovers. Baltimore has only scored double-digit fantasy points as a defense three times this season, which is extremely low for a Ray Lewis-led defense. Baltimore is currently ranked 13th in projected fantasy points for defenses this week, I really believe they will crack the top 10 by Tuesday morning.
Sit ‘em: Week Thirteen Team Defenses
St. Louis Rams @ ARI: I know how bad the Cardinals looked on Monday Night Football last week, but for many different reasons I still do not trust Sam Bradford on the road yet and because of that I inherently do not trust the Rams defense either. The Rams team defense has scored a total of 11 points in their last 3 games as a team defense and I really do not see that changing this week versus the newly motivated Derek Anderson after last weeks Monday Night Football tirade. Anderson will be out to look as good as possible and after the Rams were able to get a high scoring win in Denver last week, I see their defense showing a let down in Arizona this week.
Dallas Cowboys @ IND: The Colts have lost 3 of their last 4 games, this is the last position I would want to be if I were the Dallas Cowboys. Points will definitely not be at a premium when Manning goes after this poor-ish secondary for the Cowboys and dominates the time of possession and puts points on the board. The Cowboys have not allowed less than 20 points since their week 3 showdown with the Texans, the Cowboys will just not be able to stop Manning and allowing that many points will force their defense to cause turnovers, and I just do not see the points racking up for a defense that will most likely fall behind early on in the match up.
Cleveland Browns @ MIA: The Browns defense has looked improved all season long, especially in their last 5 games where they have averaged more than 10 fantasy points a game, but when they travel to Miami on Sunday I think the Browns will allow a few rushing touchdowns to the Wildcat and will struggle to force turnovers, which would be the only reason Cleveland’s defense ends up scoring more than projected. I think the Dolphins will get the ball to their PPR giant Davone Bess and will force the Browns into defensive coverage’s that will allow them to give up points and have trouble causing the necessary turnovers.
New England Patriots vs NYJ: This is the big match up on Monday Night Football this week for AFC supremacy between the Jets and the Patriots, but what I am seeing is really the New England Defense versus the New York Jets offense. The Patriots defense has scored double-digit fantasy points only once in their last 5 games and that was their hard fought victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, they have averaged 7 team defense fantasy points per game and I think that should be around what they can expect when the ground attack of LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene come to town with Rex Ryan. I really believe this will be a ground it out, run style type of game for the Jets and that will end up being a non-turnover type game for New York.