Errors, Omissions, Frustrations
As you may have read in last week’s Top-75 comment section, I approach my top-75 in very serious fashion. In fact, the general idea behind my weekly flex rankings is incredibly similar to how I draft. After all, what is a draft if not a simple ranking system? In fantasy football as in life, relationships, and shotgunning beers, the age-old reminder “keep it simple, stupid” often is the best policy. However, the difficulty comes, as all owners should be well aware, in making lineup choices between players of similar tier. How much weight should be given to match-ups? In order to attempt to add value to these questions, I established a numerical system that subjects obvious and pertinent questions to a personalized ranking system. While I wrote about it in last week’s comments, I will also provide the explanation here.
The way I do my flex ranks is a multi-step process that is very time consuming. Let me walk you through some of the parts:
- First, I subjectively rank the players under arbitrary categories in order to establish my own WEEKLY “tiers”. I use a point system of 1-5, 5 being the “best possible score”. For example, here are some of Mike Wallace’s WR categories and my subjective numerical rating:
- Match-up factors specific to Wallace’s match-up. His splits (if any are available), his stats vs. specific likely defender (if any are available), and the opposing team’s season stats vs. opposing receivers and passers.
- Team Scoring- Subjectively, how many points do I think the Steelers will put up this week. Will this game be a shootout or a lopsided blowout? Will it be a defensive struggle?
- Usage- how the player is employed within the offense. Are they boom or bust? How many targets/touches do they receive? What is their “official” position on the depth chart?
Wallace’s scores for week 3, according to yours truly:
- Matchup: 5
- Team Scoring: 5
- Usage: 5
(more on my process at the end of the top 75)
That said, let’s get on with this week’s top-75.
MY MISSION STATEMENT
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Darren McFadden
3. LeSean McCoy
4. Ray Rice
5. Calvin Johnson
6. Ahmad Bradshaw
7. LeGarrette Blount
8. Maurice Jones-Drew
9. Michael Turner
10. Wes Welker
11. Fred Jackson
12. Andre Johnson
13. Matt Forte
14. Ryan Matthews
15. Chris Johnson
Name Game
I promised yesterday in my week 3 recap that the “Mc-RBs” would be my top-2 this week, but Peterson’s matchup is simply too good to be ignored. Still, McFadden and McCoy come in at 2 and 3, respectively. All they have done so far is produce, and against the Patriots (McFadden) and without Vick (McCoy), their teams may lean on them even more. Continuing with matchups, I like Bradhsaw and Blount who are both seeing a lot of weekly touches/targets to do something with those in a big way this week. Megatron is, uh, Megatron. The nickname kind of says it all. Did I put Welker in the top-1o for shock value? Kind of. More because I know what the Patriot Empire can do when it has no auxiliary rebel faction to keep it in check. I really don’t like keeping CJ2K this high... it feels like a “name” ranking. But he has to bust out soon, doesn’t he?
16. Greg Jennings
17. Mike Wallace
18. Rashard Mendenhall
19. Peyton Hillis
20. Jahvid Best
21. Frank Gore
22. Larry Fitzgerald
23. Jermichael Finley
24. Roddy White
25. Rob Gronkowski
26. Steve Johnson
27. Vincent Jackson
28. Arian Foster
29. Ben Tate
30. Daniel Thomas
Tight Ends and Question Marks
Another great funk band name gone to waste. Seriously though, Finley and Gronkowski are being used as receivers in pass-first offenses and so must be ranked as such. I still like Finley better, but it’s close. The question marks surrounding Houtson’s running back situation are frustrating because, simply, we don’t know who to play as of this writing. I have ranked them as if ONE of them will play and receive the majority of the snaps (and my bet is Foster), but we simply don’t know. Unless we get specific knowledge before game time that one is out or one will receive most of the touches, I think both Foster and Tate need significantly downgraded in the ranks. While Steve Johnson hasn't broken 100 yards yet this season, he has scored in all three games. I think he keeps the streak alive and maybe even gets into triple digit yardage this week.
31. Tim Hightower
32. Beanie Wells
33. Felix Jones
34. DeSean Jackson
35. Dez Bryant
36. Cedric Benson
37. Brandon Marshall
38. Hakeem Nicks
39. Darren Sproles
40. Jason Witten
41. Steve Smith
42. Santana Moss
43. Jimmy Graham
44. James Starks
45. Dwayne Bowe
46. Anquan Boldin
47. Mike Tolbert
48. Willis McGahee
49. Mike Williams
50. Reggie Wayne
The Guess Who
As in, guess who will play? Guess who’s hamstring will survive? Ugh, this group is brutal. Beanie Wells, Felix Jones, and Steven Jackson all have serious injury concerns surrounding them going into week four. Ranking such “maybes” is very difficult, but assuming they play the majority of the game, I have them in the order I want them. Last week I overreacted to Jimmy Graham’s matchup and he proved me terribly wrong. This may be a reverse overreaction, but all he has done so far this season is produce. Reggie Wayne may be too low. Last week, Indy called his number consistently but neither quarterback could get the ball to him, even when he was wide open. It was frustrating to watch as a fantasy owner, but undoubtedly much worse for no. 87 himself. Let’s see what Curtis Painter can do. My, how far Mike Williams has fallen. Tampa Bay just can’t seem to get the ball to him, and so we must downgrade accordingly.
51. Percy Harvin
52. Shonn Greene
53. Joseph Addai
54. Mark Ingram
55. Johnathan Stewart
56. DeAngelo Williams
57. Brandon Lloyd
58. A.J. Green
59. Robert Meachem
60. LaDanian Tomlinson
61. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
62. Lance Moore
63. Denarius Moore
64. Mario Manningham
65. Santonio Holmes
66. Brandon Jacobs
67. Ryan Grant
68. Jordy Nelson
69. David Nelson
70. Julio Jones
71. Torrey Smith
72. Sidney Rice
73. Devery Henderson
74. Plaxico Burress
75. Nate Washington
Tandem Backs
What to do with the Jets and Panthers running backs? I’m not even sure their coaches know. I have them ranked in the order I’d like to own them, but that may be fluid from week to week. In a pass-heavy league, I see a lot of Wide Receivers receiving love here at the bottom... enough, in fact, to bump out Kendall Hunter. Depending on Gore’s status, that may need to change.
Notable Unranked:
Jeremy Maclin (injury), Steven Jackson (injury)
The latest I’ve heard on Maclin suggests he won’t play this week. That could change. If he does get out there, he is definitely top-35. Jackson, meanwhile, needs to play an entire half again before I’ll rank him.
In the beginning I wrote about how I do my flex ranks. Below you'll find more details to the madness.
After nailing down the match-ups, team scoring and usage, I look at trends pertaining to the specific player/game in question. This can be tricky because sometimes trends are conflicting. A perfect example is Matt Forte, who had two awful games against Green Bay last year. However, the Packers are giving up over 100 receiving yards/game to Running Backs through the first two weeks. For my ranking of Forte at 19, I had to consider both trends, though I gave more weight to the first one as it is more game-specific and I usually tend to favor head-to-head statistics over transitive ones.
Finally, using both accumulations of data, I make assessments within the tiers I have established using the arbitrary numerical categories I listed above. Meaning, I separate the players into their respective tiers and compare them to one another. A lot of “me” comes into play in this segment. Prognosticating is basically guess-work, so sometimes you have to go with your gut.
How is this system similar to my draft-day approach? Well, the basic idea is almost exactly the same. The only thing that changes are the questions I subject the player to. For example, one category may be “injury prone?” and I will rate the player on a scale of 1-5. A player will receive a score of 1 if they are made of glass and a score of 5 if they play like one of those old Techmo Superbowl 3 freaks you create with like 100 “break tackle” skill who just run people over.
Essentially, the system is a straightforward way to apply subjective values and “guesswork” to objective categories. It has always helped me make decisions regarding draft day value, and as a result there are certain players you will never (or rarely) see on my team. Frank Gore, for example, or Brian Westbrook a few years ago, simply had too low of an injury score. While it often meant making interesting choices on draft day, I rarely lived to regret them.
Best of luck in week four. As always, you can tweet lineup questions to:
@petethegreekff
_PDK