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Breakout NFL Players: Should You Believe The Hype?

August 13, 2015 by Brendan Cole

Fantasy players are fine tuning their rankings and looking for any possible advantage before draft day. This includes trying to read into what players will break out and carry fantasy teams to the promised land. The question is: Should fantasy players pay attention to the hype when it comes to breakout player predictions?

The easiest way to look into this issue is probably to consider breakout candidates from past seasons. There is no perfect way to decide if the hype was warranted, but in most cases it is fairly obvious. Fantasy owners tend to remember which players helped their team and which ones torpedoed their season.

There were a few players who seemed like can't miss breakout candidates in 2013 and 2014. I have chosen five from each season to make my case. After taking a look at those results, we can take a peek at the top breakout candidates for this season and what their prospects might be.

2013 Breakout Candidates

David Wilson RB New York Giants- 144 rush yards 8 receiving yards 1 total td

Wilson did not set the world on fire in the first couple of games in 2013. Then he injured his neck and was diagnosed with spinal stenosis. This effectively ended his football career due to risk of future injury. While the injury is not Wilson's fault, he certainly did not break out in 2013. Grade: Fail

Ronnie Hillman RB Denver Broncos- 218 rush yards 119 receiving yards 1 total touchdown

It looked like 2013 would present Hillman with every opportunity to be a monster running back. Things did not turn out that way. Hillman had issues with fumbles and ineffectiveness while Knowshon Moreno took over in a major way. Moreno finished the season with over 1500 total yards and 13 touchdowns. Grade: Fail

Alshon Jeffery WR Chicago Bears- 89 receptions 1421 receiving yards 7 touchdowns

2013 was the coming out party for Alshon Jeffery as a top flight wide receiver. He propelled fantasy teams to success as he tore up the gridiron on a weekly basis. Grade: Breakout

Ryan Tannehill QB Miami Dolphins- 60.4% completions 3913 yards 24 tds 17 ints

Tannehill was good in 2013, but his breakout came the next season.
Tannehill was good in 2013, but his breakout came the next season.

Tannehill made major strides in 2013, but the calls for a breakout were about a year early. His numbers were very usable, but he was still a bit turnover prone. Grade: Near Breakout

Danny Amendola WR New England Patriots- 54 receptions 633 receiving yards 2 touchdowns

Many fantasy owners were looking to Amendola to step in as the new Wes Welker, but it was not to be. Amendola was an average receiver at best and most managers did not bench him until he had done irreparable harm to their seasons. Grade: Fail

2013 Breakout Percentage: 40% success rate

2015 Running Back Rankings

2014 Breakout Candidates

 Montee Ball RB Denver Broncos- 162 rush yards 62 receiving yards 1 total touchdown

Montee Ball is a cautionary tale regarding potential breakout players.
Montee Ball is a cautionary tale regarding potential breakout players.

Two years in a row, Broncos backs were targeted for a breakout. Both times they blew up the rosters of the owners who invested in them. Just for the record, I think that C.J. Anderson is the real deal. Grade:Fail

Andre Ellington RB Arizona Cardinals- 660 rush yards 395 receiving yards 5 total touchdowns

Due to injuries and less touches than owners would like, Ellington disappointed a bit. Of course, the Cardinals did not have an NFL quarterback for much of the season. The season was not a total disaster for Ellington, but it was hardly a breakout. Grade: Moderate Disappointment

Toby Gerhart RB Jacksonville Jaguars- 326 rush yards 186 receiving yards 2 total touchdowns

Gerhart's first crack at being a feature back was an abysmal failure. He averaged 3.2 yards per carry and lost the starting job to Denard Robinson. Grade: Fail

Cordarrelle Patterson WR Minnesota Vikings- 33 receptions 384 receiving yards 117 rush yards 2 total touchdowns

The Vikings turned to Patterson surprisingly rarely in the passing game. Week after week fantasy owners were stymied if they chose to continue starting the talented wideout. Grade: Fail

Emmanuel Sanders WR Denver Broncos- 101 receptions 1404 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns

After spending an uneventful four seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sanders exploded onto the fantasy scene in Denver. Becoming one of Peyton Manning's favorite targets tends to be good for a career and Sanders was no exception. Grade: Breakout

2014 Breakout Percentage:20% Success Rate

2015 Wide Receiver Rankings

2015 Breakout Candidates

Teddy Bridgewater QB Minnesota Vikings

2014 was a difficult year for a Vikings team that was without star running back Adrian Peterson. Bridgewater made impressive strides throughout the season, however. This year with Peterson back in the fold, Bridgewater will look to take the next step. Outlook: QB2- Still a year away

Will Bridgewater Up His Game In 2015?

Amari Cooper WR Oakland Raiders

Amari Cooper looks like the real deal in Oakland
Amari Cooper looks like the real deal in Oakland

Cooper has the look of a receiver who will set the league on fire right away. He plays on a team with few other legitimate offensive threats and has the skills to take over a game. Jerry Rice recently compared Cooper to former Raider Tim Brown. Outlook: Legit-Buy Cooper

Carlos Hyde RB San Francisco 49ers

All of the skills are there for Carlos Hyde, but he plays for what should be a bad team. There is also the presence of Reggie Bush to account for, although he will not likely take away too many carries. Hyde should carry the load in San Francisco. Outlook: Pay for RB2, hope for RB1

Joseph Randle RB Dallas Cowboys

It seems like many fantasy owners are too quick to discount the skills of Demarco Murray. The Cowboys do have a dominant offensive line, but I would not be so quick to believe that any back can have success running behind it. Randle may have a decent season, but it would not surprise me if the running game saw much less success than in 2014. Outlook: Beware the bust

More analysis of Randle's breakout potential

Travis Kelce TE Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce had a very solid season in 2014 and has a good rapport with Alex Smith. As he looks to build off the 862 yards and 5 touchdowns from last season, Kelce appears to be on the verge of a true breakout.       Outlook: Breakout on the horizon

So over the course of the last two seasons, potential breakout players have had a success rate of 30 percent. This means that most likely one or two of the breakout candidates this season will be a huge help to fantasy squads. Based on the players featured in this article, it also means that the players who do not succeed may flame out in a major way.

It seems that the lesson to be learned is to be careful when paying for potential. If these players fall to you for a decent price, by all means take a chance. If the price is too high, on the other hand, go for a known commodity.

Category - Fantasy Football News and Analysis - Breakout NFL Players: Should You Believe The Hype?

About Brendan Cole

Brendan is a graduate of the University of Massachusetts Amherst with a concentration in journalism. He is a lifelong sports fan who is currently molding his two sons to follow in his footsteps. Follow him on Twitter

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