What have we learned? I stand, wobbly, at the head of the class and ask again. What have we learned? Something nefarious has been done, the culprit discovered, and now, hands on hips, poised dramatically in front of the American flag and blackboard, I attempt to make a dubious, lasting point of some uncertain ethical impact. Of course, I am faced with nothing more than blank, confused, or disinterested stares.
This is how I feel this morning trying to write about fantasy football after six weeks. I feel like in many ways, we have more questions now than we did in week one. But, this is the life of prognosticating- in reality, an impossible endeavor with plenty of pitfalls. One question I received last week, for example: Jordy Nelson or Marques Colston? I had a strong feeling about Colston and recommended the Saint and was correct: by one point. (Keep in mind, however, apart from a 93 yard catch and run where the defense fell over or asleep or both, Nelson had one catch for 11 yards.) At any rate, the point here is simply to interpret the rankings accordingly. These are my best guess. Anyone who ranks a player and tells you differently is selling something... probably swampland. If you’re curious, I wrote extensively about my method for establishing my ranks in a previous top-75.
With a lot of top fantasy options sidelined due to byes, this week’s rankings are harder (and perhaps more important) than ever. Many marginal decisions will affect your results and so I have attempted to include, whenever possible, as much statistical or logical backup for my rankings as I can provide. Want more or have a question? You can always tweet me: @petethegreekff.
MY MISSION STATEMENT
(or, to read more about how I detest mission statements, click here.
What frustrates me above all else are so-called fantasy advice columns that fit into one of two categories:
1) They refuse to stray from conventional wisdom, often until it’s weeks too late to save or help your season or
2) They only offer rankings commentary on the “big-name” guys that everyone knows to play anyway. Gee, Adrian Peterson will have a bounce back week and I shouldn’t bench him for Danny Woodhead? Thanks!
Each week I will examine what I consider to be the most pressing issues facing fantasy owners. I will try to focus only on issues that you may actually be concerned with, namely: marginal flex players, tough matchup decisions, and above all else, how to assimilate new information from the previous week. This is a column of the people, by the people, for the people (thanks, Abe). And as long as I’m offering oaths, I promise to always tackle the difficult questions as I see them, not be chained by conventional wisdom, and not allow traditional or draft-position bias to affect my weekly rankings.
1. Darren McFadden
2. Matt Forte
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Ray Rice
5. Arian Foster
6. Adrian Peterson
7. Michael Turner
8. Chris Johnson
9. Earnest Graham
10. Greg Jennings
11. Rashard Mendenhall
12. Beanie Wells
13. Maurice Jones-Drew
14. Mike Wallace
15. Darren Sproles
The Big Boys
McFadden finally finds his way to the number one spot. I expect Carson Palmer to have the same effect on McFadden’s fantasy value as he will on the rest of the Oakland Raiders: absolutely none. I don’t see him as much of an upgrade from Jason Campbell. At best, he may develop a “favorite receiver” whose targets (and thus value) may increase slightly. That’s it. I stubbornly refuse to put Mendenhall in my top-10... yet. He had one nice week and has an absolutely cake matchup against the little league Cardina... I mean Arizona. Everything screams that he’ll have a monster week... which is exactly why I’m ranking him as if he won’t. If there’s anything that has been consistent about Mendenhall this year it has been his ability to disappoint. Take, for example, his 18 carries for 37 yards against Indianapolis in week 3. So, I’ve put Earnest Graham in his place instead. The Bears are notorious for giving away short underneath stuff, and if Blount doesn’t play (which again I doubt he will), Graham will get a ton of touches. Sproles in the top-15? Well, on a bye week, looking around, who do I like above him? Ryan Matthews possibly should be up there, but with injury questions and not the best matchup, I don’t mind doing it this way:
16. Ryan Matthews
17. Marques Colston
18. Steven Jackson
19. Willis McGahee
20. Steve Smith
21. Jimmy Graham
22. Roddy White
23. Jackie Battle
24. Jason Witten
25. Daniel Thomas
26. Miles Austin
27. Dez Bryant
28. Larry Fitzgerald
29. Jermichael Finley
30. Dwayne Bowe
Tight Ends, Cont.
I like Colston to keep it going with another strong week, but really Jimmy Graham may be the top target in New Orleans. Just as Jason Witten may be the no. 1 receiving option in Dallas. Witten has scored in double digits in four out of five weeks and even though St. Louis is giving up less than 3 fantasy points/game against tight ends I suspect 1) that is primarily because they give up points to everyone else and 2) that will change this week. Jermichael Finley had 6 catches for 128 yards and a score in his last game against Minnesota... albeit back in 2009. Still, I like him to have a good week in divisional play. Seeing some of the above names in the top-30 is a bit scary- Daniel Thomas for example- but reminds us that we often have to get creative during the bye week. While my rankings reflect I like Austin slightly better than Bryant, I’d start both in all leagues.
31. Jahvid Best
32. Shonn Greene
33. Pierre Garcon
34. Vincent Jackson
35. Owen Daniels
36. DeMarco Murray
37. Brandon Marshall
38. Tony Gonzalez
39. Anquan Boldin
40. Jordy Nelson
41. Brandon Lloyd
42. Brandon Pettigrew
43. James Starks
44. Ryan Torain
45. Santonio Holmes
46. Santana Moss
47. Eric Decker
48. Reggie Wayne
49. Mark Ingram
50. Marshawn Lynch
Maybes
What to do with Jahvid Best? I really think he should be higher than this, but with as many other weapons as Detroit has, it’s hard to put him in the top-30 consistently, even on a bye week. Shonn Greene has received 42 carries the past two weeks. 42. It’s also the meaning of life, some might say. Tony Gonzalez has been held out of the endzone two weeks in a row, but I think he’ll get back to his scoring ways this week against a Lions team giving up almost 8/game to opposing tight ends. Ryan Torain? Why not. I have to rank one Redskins running back, at least, though I’d prefer not to. And with John Beck taking over for Rex Grossman, I would expect a lot of handing the ball off. Jordy Nelson turnes one to two catches into fantasy glory each week. I just have the sensation it’s going to stop at some point, but this week is not that “some point.”
51. Mike Tolbert
52. Johnathan Stewart
53. Sidney Rice
54. Nate Washington
55. Greg Olsen
56. Mike Tolbert
57. Julio Jones
58. Peyton Hillis
59. Greg Little
60. LaDanian Tomlinson
61. Percy Harvin
62. Monterio Hardesty
63. Mike Williams
64. Darrius Heyward-Bey
65. Ryan Grant
66. Hines Ward
67. Tashard Choice
68. Plaxico Burress
69. Kevin Walter
70. Pierre Thomas
71. Dustin Keller
72. James Jones
73. Mike Thomas
74. Tim Hightower
75. Doug Baldwin
A Strange Finish
More questions, again. Even if Peyton Hillis plays, we have no idea what his usage or impact will be, which of course also impacts Monterio Hardesty. In fantasy- avoid uncertainty as much as possible. Meanwhile, I’d love to put Julio Jones much higher in a bye week but I simply don’t know if he will play or how limited he may be if he does. Christian Ponder’s installation can’t possibly hurt Percy Harvin, and may be just what he needs. Same logic for Carson Palmer and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Though I’d prefer to stay away from any Oakland receivers until we see more, you may not have a better choice. I think the two biggest upside plays of this bottom group are Greg Little and Doug Baldwin. Both could have a nice week and Baldwin is coming off two strong performances in a row. No, I have no idea what to make of Tim Hightower, and he finds his way on this list more because of potential than actual value. Again, if you have better options, use them. I keep waiting for Mike Williams to bounce back, but even in a week when Josh Freeman blew up, Williams was hardly involved. Greg Olsen, meanwhile, still had five catches in a week where Cam Newton looked human again. Olsen remains the Panthers second best receiver behind Steve Smith, and Carolina will throw the ball.
Best of luck! I look forward to your tweets.
_PDK