Fantasy Football Quarterback Draft Rankings

My rankings represent a mix of historical production and my guy feeling for 2018 upside/downside. I believe Brady takes a fantasy step backward this season. With Gronkowski's inability to stay healthy, Cooks gone, Edelman lost for 4 games and Brady's age the outlook is grim. Not to mention the Pats drafted a RB in the first round. This speaks volumes about their vision going forward with the pigskin. I'm probably a year early with my guess work but better safe than sorry.

Some Lock and Load Draft Steals

Derek Carr, 10th round ADP. As Brad Weiss pointed out, Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has the fourth-most touchdowns of any quarterback in NFL history through his first four seasons. With his 2017 back injury behind him I think Carr turns the page and enters the next level of fantasy football greatness. The sky is the limit for this kid and he will only get better with time. Matt Ryan, 9th round ADP. His new toy Calvin Ridley is going to work wonders for this offense. He will roam free with Julio getting the double/triple coverage. Defenses will eventually give up and drop both safeties giving Ryan ample opportunities to march his team to the end zone. Many will be wondering why they didn't draft him, don't be that guy.

Some Words of Caution

Lamar Jackson could replace Joe Flacco at some point this season. But it's not like you were drafting Flacco, I hope. Andrew Luck might play, but how will that shoulder hold up after a couple 300 pound men slam it into the ground? Wentz is another guy that comes with injury concern and that rings louder than most as Philly kept Foles when it would have been very advantageous not to. Last but not least I'm avoiding Case Keenum. What he did last season was unreal but he took entirely to long getting the ball out. He will be losing at least a second per snap in that watery paper bag known as the Denver offensive line.

• Russell Wilson - Loses Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson, and gains Jaron Brown and...Brandon Marshall? Yucky. Nevertheless, with the Seahawks' defense hemorrhaging talent, I expect Wilson to be forced into putting up elite numbers once again.
• Philip Rivers - The last time Rivers finished outside of the QB1 realm was back in 2012. Anyone ranking him outside the Top 12 at the position hasn't been paying attention.
• Blake Bortles - Finished as a Top 10 quarterback in 2 of his last 3 years, just barely missing out on QB1 status last year. That he's going completely undrafted in the majority of leagues is RIDICULOUS. 
• Baker Mayfield - The Browns will have no choice but to yank Tyrod Taylor unless he starts off on a massive winning streak, though it's hard to say exactly when he'll hit the field. 

I was a hair from making Deshaun Watson my QB1, but couldn't quite pull the trigger. Needless to say, I'm very high on him this year.

I also love Matt Stafford, particularly since he is a perennial draft-day bargain.

Beware of Jameis Winston and his three game suspension (and the fact that he is a very mediocre quarterback). 

I am out when it comes to Andrew Luck. Maybe grab him as a late round flier, but just realize that someone in your league is willing to pay too much for the uncertainty that he represents.